Sandown’s 1.50 on Saturday is the sort of race that usually tells you plenty. It is a deep novice handicap, run at a proper gallop, on soft ground, and it tends to go to a horse still ahead of the handicapper rather than one already fully exposed.
This year’s renewal looks no different. There are several with chances, but once the HRB ratings, Timeform view and race trends are put side by side, Scorpio Rising comes out as the most likely winner.
He is top-rated on the main HRB figures with 414, and he also heads the TimeWise NH totals with 413.7. In a race this competitive, that matters. He is not just near the top of the pile, he is clear of it.
The profile is strong as well. He is a 6yo, rated 128, arrives here on a hat-trick, handles soft ground and looks the type still progressing. That is exactly the sort you want in this race. Recent winners have generally been unexposed novices in the five- and six-year-old bracket, rated in the low to mid-120s, and coming here in form. Scorpio Rising is slightly above that ratings sweet spot, but not enough to put anyone off given how much improvement he has shown.
His latest win at Windsor looks especially solid. Timeform described him as improving in leaps and bounds, and that reads right. He has done little wrong this season and has looked like a horse growing into himself with every run. The manner of those wins suggests he has not reached his ceiling yet.
The pace angle only strengthens the case. Timeform’s pace forecast is extreme, which points to a truly-run race. In this contest that can make all the difference. Horses that race too freely or rely on getting an easy lead can be found out up Sandown’s finish. Scorpio Rising looks the type who can sit off the pace, travel and pick up late, which is often the winning shape in this race.
That is one reason why I am not putting Kaka’s Cousin on top, even though he is clearly a major player. Timeform make him their selection and there is plenty to like. He is lightly raced, his mark of 126 looks fair, and the step up in trip could bring more out of him. But the likely race setup may not be ideal, and on the combined evidence he does not have quite the same all-round case as Scorpio Rising.
Unknown Entity is another with a big shout. Dan Skelton’s runner has improved for the yard and his mark of 120 gives him room to manoeuvre. He looks the sort who could take another step forward now switched into a handicap over further. He makes plenty of appeal, but he still has to prove he can finish the job in a race of this nature.
There are one or two others worth a mention. Laguna Beach is unexposed and from a yard that knows how to place one, while Four Springs is interesting off 118 for Ben Pauling, who has a recent good record in this race. Gentleman Toboot has bits of form that give him a chance, but top weight in a race like this is rarely easy.
Even so, the percentage call is straightforward enough.
Scorpio Rising has the best ratings profile, the right age, the right progression, proven form on soft ground and a race setup that should suit. In a proper Sandown handicap, that is more than enough to make him the one to beat.
Verdict
Scorpio Rising is the pick.
Kaka’s Cousin looks the main danger.
Unknown Entity is respected and could easily make the frame.
The shortlist is not hard to make, but the winner is the one already staring us in the face. Scorpio Rising sets the standard and looks the horse most likely to go and win it.