Saturday 7 March
Sandown’s 3m handicap chase is a race that tends to reward the same type of horse year after year – solid staying chasers in the 7–9 age bracket, carrying around 11–0 to 11–6, and sitting in the mid-120s handicap range. Recent winners like Hoe Joly Smoke, Rose Of Arcadia and Mucho Mas fit that mould perfectly.
This year’s renewal looks fairly ordinary for the grade, but there is one runner who stands out on both ratings and potential.
The Favourite With Upside
Calimystic arrives with the strongest HorseRaceBase figure in the field and the profile of a horse still improving. Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old made a winning chase debut at Newbury over Christmas and did it the right way — travelling strongly, jumping accurately and showing enough resolution to get his head back in front close home.
The bare form might not scream dominance, but the key point is that it was a significant step forward from his hurdles form and it came on his first try over fences. Horses from this yard often improve plenty for that initial experience, and this looks the logical next step.
The likely pace scenario also plays in his favour. Timeform expect a steadily run race, and at Sandown that usually benefits horses who can sit handy and jump fluently. Calimystic fits that bill perfectly under Nico de Boinville.
The Main Threat
Sound And Fury is the obvious danger after winning well at Carlisle last time. Ben Pauling has a decent record in races like this and his nine-year-old is clearly thriving over fences this season.
The issue is the handicapper. That Carlisle win has pushed him up to a career-high mark of 127, which leaves him looking more exposed than the favourite. He’s capable of running well again, but improvement may be limited.
Others With Questions
Welcom To Cartries has course-and-distance form and comes from the Paul Nicholls yard, but his latest run at Ascot was a complete non-event when pulled up. If that effort reflected a problem, he needs to prove he’s over it.
Bucksy Des Epeires bounced back with a win at Ludlow for Venetia Williams, but consistency has never been his strong suit and this slightly stronger contest may expose that.
Invincible Nao is interesting back up in trip and could outrun his odds, while Tune In A Box is handicapped on his hurdles form but still has plenty to prove over fences.
As for Certainly Red, the veteran carries top weight at the age of twelve after a long absence — a tough assignment even for a horse who enjoys Sandown.
Verdict
This race lacks depth and that gives the advantage to the horse with the most untapped potential.
Calimystic fits the historical profile of the race, holds the strongest HRB figure in the field and should get a tactical setup that suits his running style. With improvement likely after his successful chase debut, he looks the most solid option in an otherwise ordinary contest.
Selection: Calimystic
Danger: Sound And Fury
Value outsider: Invincible Nao