A proper test for the new generation
Sandown’s Listed mares’ bumper has quietly become one of the best late-season NH Flat races in Britain. It regularly throws up serious mares and the profile of the winner is fairly consistent.
Most winners are five-year-olds carrying 11-2, usually arriving off a win or strong placing and generally towards the head of the market. The race is also typically run at a strong gallop, which tends to expose anything with suspect stamina.
This year’s renewal looks a good one.
Ti’Mamzel sets the standard
The horse with the strongest form on paper is Ti’Mamzel from the Moore yard.
She won a 14-runner Listed bumper at Huntingdon in December, beating several rivals who reappear here. That race is the best piece of form in the field and she backed it up with a solid run against geldings at Windsor.
The issue is the penalty. Carrying 11-6 on soft ground in a competitive bumper is never ideal, particularly when several progressive mares receive weight.
She’s the form horse, but the race conditions slightly level the playing field.
Burds Of A Feather – visually impressive but unproven
Few horses made a bigger visual impact recently than Burds Of A Feather at Warwick.
She bolted up by 19 lengths, despite doing plenty wrong during the race. That suggests there is a sizeable engine there and she clearly has plenty of raw ability.
However the form of that race is questionable and this is a big step from a small Warwick bumper into Listed company at Sandown. She could be very good, but she still has to prove it.
Lune Brillante looks the value
The one who could improve past them is Lune Brillante for Dan Skelton.
She created a strong impression when winning her debut at Carlisle and then ran far better than the bare result suggests behind Ti’Mamzel at Huntingdon. She was badly hampered turning for home, which effectively ended her chance before the race developed.
That piece of form ties her closely to the favourite and there is every reason to believe she has more improvement to come.
With Timeform predicting a very strong pace, the race could set up perfectly for a mare finishing late — exactly the scenario that suits her.
The verdict
Ti’Mamzel deserves plenty of respect but the penalty on soft ground may just blunt her edge. Burds Of A Feather has obvious potential but is being asked to prove a lot very quickly.
Lune Brillante, meanwhile, looks the runner most likely to take a significant step forward and the race conditions could play right into her hands.
Selection: LUNE BRILLANTE
The one most likely to improve past the established form and land this Listed bumper.