Seven runners line up for the 2m4f novices’ handicap chase at Sandown, a race that regularly throws up well-handicapped chasers just before the spring festivals. Past winners include the likes of A Plus Tard and Imperial Aura, so while the field is small the quality and future potential can be significant.
Historically the race favours six and seven-year-olds rated in the low-to-mid 120s carrying manageable weights. Tactical speed is often key as these Sandown novice handicaps can turn into steadily run contests where positioning and jumping decide the outcome.
Mr Hope Street – Talented but vulnerable
The market leader Mr Hope Street brings the highest rating in the field off 131 and must concede weight all round. His third in a Haydock graduation chase reads respectably, but the form looks slightly flattering and he now has to give lumps of weight away in a race where that has historically been difficult. He remains unexposed over fences but looks priced on potential rather than what he has achieved.
Followcato – Progressive but rising in the weights
Ben Pauling’s Followcato arrives on the back of a sequence of wins since cheekpieces were fitted. The progression is obvious and his HRB rating is the highest in the field, but the handicapper has reacted and this represents another step up in class. His recent wins have come in small fields and he now meets deeper opposition.
Just Over Land – The profile horse
Just Over Land fits the historical profile better than anything else in the race. The seven-year-old has improved this season, winning at Fontwell and Chepstow before running respectably in a stronger Cheltenham handicap. Dropping back into calmer waters here looks ideal.
His official rating of 123 sits right in the historical sweet spot, and the 7lb claim from Harvey Barfoot-Saunt gives him a major weight advantage against the principals. In a race likely to be tactical, that allowance could prove decisive.
Soldierofthestorm – The main danger
Soldierofthestorm is the interesting improver. His second on chase debut at Hereford came in a race where the front two pulled clear, suggesting the form is solid. With further improvement likely over fences he looks the one capable of stepping forward enough to trouble the selection.
Captain Bellamy – Pace angle but questions remain
Paul Nicholls’ Captain Bellamy could be suited by the anticipated steady tempo as he likes to race prominently. However, he has had chances and tends to travel better than he finishes. He may again threaten before finding one or two too strong.
Others
Akimos switches to chasing after disappointing hurdle efforts and has something to prove, while Glen Road has yet to show any real aptitude for fences.
Verdict
This looks a race where the handicap profile matters more than raw ability.
Just Over Land arrives with the right rating, the right age profile and solid recent form in stronger company. With a useful 7lb claim reducing his burden and a tactical race likely, he makes the most appeal.
Selection: Just Over Land
Main danger: Soldierofthestorm
Next best: Captain Bellamy