Small field, tactical race likely
Only four runners line up for this Class 3 handicap chase and the shape of the race looks straightforward. With very little obvious pace on paper, this could easily turn tactical, and that often proves decisive around Sandown.
Historically this race tends to fall to horses aged 7–8 rated in the low-to-mid 120s, which immediately focuses attention on the two at the head of the market.
Norn Iron sets the standard
Norn Iron arrives in top form after winning over this course and distance five weeks ago, travelling strongly and pulling clear late on. That performance earned him an 8 lb rise to 124, but that still leaves him right in the sweet spot historically for this race.
His profile is solid. The tongue tie seemed to bring improvement and his form figures show a horse operating at a consistent level. From a pure ability perspective he is the most likely winner.
The only concern is tactical. In a steadily run four-runner race he may not get the strong gallop that suited him last time.
Toothless could control the race
Paul Nicholls’ Toothless looks the obvious pace angle. He is a sound jumper who tends to race prominently and that could be a big advantage if this turns into the slow tactical contest Timeform expect.
He won well at Windsor on New Year’s Day and followed up with a strong second at Ludlow, beaten only half a length. Importantly, he runs here effectively 5 lb lower thanks to Jay Tidball’s claim, which narrows the gap with the favourite.
If allowed to dictate, he could make this uncomfortable for Norn Iron.
Others look up against it
Here Comes Georgie carries top weight and tends to be ridden patiently, which is not ideal in a race lacking pace. He has bits of form that give him a chance but looks vulnerable giving weight away.
First Angel returns from over a year off the track and, at ten years old, is hard to fancy in a race likely to be run at a tactical tempo.
Verdict
Norn Iron is the progressive horse and deserves favouritism after his recent course-and-distance win. However, the likely race shape may play into the hands of Toothless, who should be able to race prominently and control the pace.
In a small tactical field, that can be enough.
Selection: TOOTHLESS (FR)
Main danger: Norn Iron