A small but interesting field of six goes to post for this Grade 3 novice hurdle over two miles at Naas, with heavy ground likely to make this a proper stamina test. In races like this, class still matters, but the ability to handle deep conditions and jump cleanly under pressure is often the deciding factor.
Historically, this race has been dominated by the bigger Irish yards, particularly Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott, and the market usually points strongly towards the winner. The last few renewals have also favoured improving novices rather than exposed types, which is an important angle in this year’s race.
Lazare De Star
Gordon Elliott’s runner brings the most consistent profile into the race with form figures of 2122. He has been running well in solid novice company and sets a reliable standard. However, there is a growing sense he may be more of a placer than a winner, having had several opportunities to get his head in front. On heavy ground he should run his race, but he does not look bombproof at short odds.
Blake
Noel Meade’s Blake is the highest rated horse in the field and holds the strongest official mark. His overall profile suggests he has plenty of ability, but his latest run leaves a slight question mark as to whether he has already shown his hand for the season. While clearly capable of winning this, the price leaves little margin for error.
Davy Crockett
The most intriguing runner is Davy Crockett from the Willie Mullins yard. He won his first three starts before finishing down the field last time in stronger company. That effort is easy enough to forgive and the key point here is that he remains relatively unexposed compared with his main rivals.
Mullins has a strong record in this race and his novices often improve sharply when dropped back into slightly calmer waters after a tough assignment. With the best underlying performance rating in the field and a profile that suggests there could still be improvement to come, he makes plenty of appeal.
The Rest
Jony R, Parnell Street, and Le Labo all appear to have something to prove at this level. Each would likely need the principals to underperform to play a major role.
Verdict
In a race lacking depth, it may pay to side with the horse who still has upside rather than exposed form. Lazare De Star will run his race and Blake has the ratings to be involved, but the one who could still step forward is Davy Crockett.
With the Mullins yard targeting races like this and the horse still open to improvement, he looks the most interesting option in the field.
Selection: Davy Crockett