A small but interesting four-runner novice handicap where tactics could prove decisive. Timeform expect a very steady early pace, which often turns these races into a sprint from the second last. In that scenario, track position becomes crucial.
The obvious starting point is Celestial Fashion, who arrives here in excellent form. Ian Duncan’s mare has won three of her last four starts and looked better than ever when bolting up over this course and distance last month. She travelled strongly and quickened clear to win by eleven lengths, showing she handles Carlisle particularly well. The handicapper has reacted with an 8 lb rise, but her overall profile suggests she’s still improving despite being an eight-year-old. In a race lacking pace, she is also the most likely runner to sit handy, which could prove a major tactical advantage.
Benmore looks the main threat. Laura Morgan’s gelding has taken well to chasing this season, winning at Leicester before running a solid race at Southwell last time. He was still in second when falling at the last, so that effort is easily forgiven. Off a mark of 114 he carries top weight, but on ability he arguably has the strongest upside in the field. The slight concern is how the race is run; if the tempo is slow and he’s held up, he may find himself with too much to do.
Kadjar Des Mottes is a consistent type but remains a maiden under rules. His second at Doncaster over three miles last month was respectable, though he didn’t look unlucky in defeat and now drops slightly in trip. In a tactical race he may simply lack the turn of foot required to get past the principals.
Kahavari completes the field but has struggled for consistency over fences this season. His second at Huntingdon reads reasonably well, yet he was well beaten at Ayr last time and his overall profile leaves him with something to prove.
Historically this race tends to favour horses rated around the low 110s and that again points firmly towards Celestial Fashion, whose current mark of 110 still looks workable given the authority of her latest win.
In a race with limited pace and only four runners, the mare’s course form, current momentum and likely tactical position make her the one they all have to beat.
Selection: Celestial Fashion