A small-field novice hurdle at Carlisle where the betting tells the story. On paper this revolves around three runners – Itsinthename, Guet Apens and They Want Me – with the remainder needing dramatic improvement to play a serious role.
Itsinthename sets the standard
Itsinthename looks the most solid option. The £70,000 Irish point recruit made an immediate impact under rules, finishing a close second in a Lingfield bumper before making a winning hurdles debut at Catterick 12 days ago.
That Catterick success was achieved in straightforward fashion and, importantly, he looked professional for a horse having his first start over hurdles. With Brian Hughes booked again, that is a major positive at a track where jockeyship and positioning can matter, particularly on soft ground.
He should also improve for the experience and sets the form standard despite conceding weight to a couple of rivals.
Guet Apens the danger
The main threat looks to be Guet Apens, formerly trained by Andre Fabre on the Flat. He showed useful ability in France and shaped with promise when third on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh after a long absence.
That run suggested he would come on for the outing and connections are adept at improving this type of recruit from the Flat. If he sharpens up his jumping and steps forward from that initial run, he has the ability to get involved.
However, Musselburgh is a far less demanding track than Carlisle and this will require a bit more in terms of stamina and hurdling accuracy.
They Want Me needs to bounce back
Donald McCain’s They Want Me brings the most experience over hurdles. Earlier in the season he chased home the smart Idaho Sun before winning at Kelso, but his latest effort back at that track was disappointing, finishing a well-beaten third.
A return to his earlier form would see him competitive, especially if allowed an uncontested lead, but the last run leaves a slight doubt about where he currently stands.
The rest look outclassed
The remainder of the field appear to have plenty to find. Several have been well beaten in similar company and look more likely candidates for handicaps further down the line.
Verdict
This looks a straightforward novice hurdle where Itsinthename has the most convincing profile. He already has a win over hurdles, comes from a yard in form and has the assistance of Brian Hughes once again.
Guet Apens rates the main danger if improving for his hurdling debut, while They Want Me has the experience to pick up a place if returning to his earlier form.
Selection: Itsinthename.