This looks the usual proper Naas slog: a staying handicap chase where you need three things above all else — proven stamina, the ability to travel and jump on deep ground, and a mark that still leaves room for manoeuvre.
The market is focusing on the right sort, but there is a clear split here between horses with class and horses with the right profile for this exact test.
What the race trends say
The recent winners give a pretty clean template:
Most winners were aged 7 to 9
They generally carried low to middle weights, not top weight
A mark in the mid-120s to high-130s has been ideal
Recent form does not need to be sparkling; several winners came here after seemingly moderate prep runs
Proven ability in soft/heavy staying handicaps is a major plus
That immediately makes this a poor race for relying blindly on raw class. You want a horse well treated for a brutal staying test, not just the best horse in the field.
Main contenders
UHAVEMEINSTITCHES
Timeform’s choice, and there is plenty to like. She has taken very well to fences, and her latest third over an inadequate 2m at Naas reads better than it looks. Back up in trip is a big plus, and the pace setup could help her if she is ridden positively enough.
The concern is not talent. It is whether she is quite as battle-hardened as some of these for a rough, attritional Leinster National. She is only six, and while that age can be a positive, this race can expose inexperience. She is respected, but I am not convinced she is the most solid finisher in the field under these conditions.
GORAIBHMAITHAGAT
A very obvious player. He won here over 2m4f on heavy last time and did it in the manner of a horse still improving. He has course form, heavy-ground form, and a profile that fits a second-half-of-the-season improver.
The question is the trip. He is moving up from 20f to 3m1f in one go, and this race is not a gentle stamina test. He could absolutely improve again, but at around the head of the market you are paying for stamina he still has to prove.
THE LOVELY MAN
A dangerous one. Cromwell knows what is needed for this race, and this horse is well treated on 124 if he continues progressing. His sixth at Punchestown over 27.3f on heavy was not a bad run at all given how that race unfolded, and he shaped like this sort of marathon handicap could suit.
He is one of the better handicapped runners in the race and has the right yard. Strong each-way claims, but I just wonder whether he has the same proven grit in a hard-finishing national as one or two others.
HIGH CLASS HERO
On pure ability he could simply be the best horse in this race. A mark of 152 is a huge class edge and he ran very well at Punchestown on return. But this race is rarely kind to horses giving lumps of weight away in deep ground, and his latest pull-up in the Thyestes is hard to brush aside. Heavy ground may just blunt him enough.
He can win if his class carries him through, but the weight and race trends are against him.
The one I want
BUSHMANS PASS
He is the standout bet for me.
Why? Because he ticks the boxes this race keeps demanding.
He won this race last year, so we already know he handles the track, the test and the demands of this contest. He is back here off 130, only 3 lb higher than for that success, and his reappearance fourth at Limerick over an inadequate trip looked exactly the sort of prep run you would want before returning to a staying handicap on heavy ground.
His HRB figure of 335 puts him right in the mix without forcing him into the burden of top weight, and his Timeform profile strongly suggests this step back up in distance is what he wants. Unlike some of the younger improvers, there is no guesswork over trip, ground or track.
He is also a strong fit with the race trends:
9/10yo staying handicap type
Proven in the race itself
Carries a workable weight
Effective on soft/heavy
Comes here after a run that should have put him spot on
That combination is hard to beat in a Leinster National.
Self-critique
The obvious risk with BUSHMANS Pass is that he is not obviously thrown in. He is not a lurker off 121 with stacks in hand; he is a proven horse running off a fair mark. That means a younger improver could still go past him.
The biggest threats on that angle are:
Goraibhmaithagat, if he truly stays
Uhavemeinstitches, if she improves again for this trip
The Lovely Man, if he gets into a rhythm and keeps finding
So I have to ask: am I siding too heavily with course-and-race form rather than upside?
Possibly. But in this specific race, on this ground, I would rather trust solid proven suitability than chase an unproven stamina angle at a shorter price.
Reassessed verdict
After going back through the trends, the weights, the HRB figures and the Timeform notes, I still come back to the same horse.
Selection: BUSHMANS PASS
He is the percentage call. Last year’s winner, proven stayer, proven at Naas, proven in deep ground, and likely primed for this target after a sensible comeback run.
Predicted 1-2-3
1. Bushmans Pass
2. The Lovely Man
3. Goraibhmaithagat
Best of the rest
Uhavemeinstitches
Betting view
Bushmans Pass is the win pick.
For each-way players, The Lovely Man makes plenty of appeal.
Final answer: BUSHMANS PASS to win the Leinster National again.