A small field of four lines up for the 2.20 at Carlisle, the EBF Junior National Hunt Hurdle over 2m1f on soft ground. With so few runners and no obvious front-runner, the pace looks likely to be steady, meaning positioning and jumping could prove decisive.
The market is headed by Molly’s Lad, who brings the most established hurdle form into the race. Fergal O’Brien’s four-year-old shaped with promise when third on his hurdling debut at Doncaster last month on heavy ground, finishing behind two rivals who already had experience in this sphere. Prior to that he ran well in bumpers, including a respectable fifth in a Listed event at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. That level of form sets the standard here, and his ability to travel handily should suit what looks a tactical contest.
However, the one with the most upside is Majordomo from the Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore yard. The French-bred gelding made a winning start in a Newcastle bumper in November, overcoming greenness and a less than ideal position before asserting late on. It was a performance that suggested both ability and professionalism once the penny dropped. Given the stable’s record with young jumpers, it would be no surprise if he improved significantly for the switch to hurdles.
Lucy The Wire is the most experienced over obstacles and arrives with solid form figures of 2-1-2. She won at Leicester in November before finishing runner-up in a junior hurdle at Haydock in December. That was a respectable effort, though the form is not obviously stronger than what Molly’s Lad has achieved, and she now tries a tongue-tie for the first time. With Brian Hughes in the saddle she should give another honest account, but she may lack the scope of improvement that Majordomo possesses.
The outsider Masterfield looks to have plenty to find. His bumper form has been modest and he was well beaten at this track last time. Even allowing for improvement on his hurdling debut, he appears up against it.
Recent runnings of this race have tended to go to unexposed types from capable yards, and that profile fits Majordomo perfectly. If he takes to hurdling as expected, his bumper form suggests he has the raw ability to outclass these.
In a race that may turn tactical, the key will be jumping and track position, but Majordomo looks the runner with the most potential to progress past his rivals.
Verdict: Majordomo to make a winning hurdling debut, with Molly’s Lad the main danger. 🏇