A small but interesting field of five lines up for the 3m veterans’ handicap chase at Carlisle, a race that often turns into a tactical affair. With Timeform predicting a very weak pace, positioning could be more important than pure ability, and that immediately shapes how this race should be analysed.
Tommy’s Oscar – Class but Questions
Tommy’s Oscar is the obvious starting point. He’s the class horse in the race, rated 139, and arrives here after a solid second at Musselburgh behind JPR One. That is strong form for a veterans’ contest and on ratings he is the horse they all have to beat.
However, there are clear concerns. Most of his best chasing form has come at around two miles to two and a half, and this three-mile trip on soft ground pushes his stamina. Carrying 12-0 in testing conditions also makes life tougher. In a steadily run race his class may carry him a long way, but this is not a straightforward task.
Hillcrest – The Pace Angle
If the race is tactical, Hillcrest becomes very interesting.
Henry Daly’s gelding produced his best effort for some time when second at Uttoxeter over an extended trip on heavy ground. That run suggested he still retains plenty of ability, and importantly stamina is his strong suit.
With little obvious pace in the race, Hillcrest is the one most likely to sit close to the lead or even dictate. In slowly run staying chases that can be decisive. Off a mark of 123 and carrying just 10-12, he receives a significant weight pull from the favourite.
The obvious negative is that he is still a maiden over fences, which is far from ideal for an eleven-year-old. But in this small field he may simply get the run of the race.
Empire Steel – Capable but Hard to Trust
Empire Steel has the back class to get involved and handles deep ground well. He stays further than this and Brian Hughes in the saddle is always a positive.
The issue is his recent form, particularly the heavy defeat at Kelso last time. If that effort can be forgiven he has the ability to get competitive, but punters need to take a leap of faith.
Credo – Course Specialist Needing a Pace
Credo is a course-and-distance winner and actually posts the highest HRB rating in the field, which immediately catches the eye. She has also shown her liking for veterans’ races in the past.
The problem is her running style. She tends to be held up, and in a race where the pace could be extremely steady that is not ideal. Without a proper gallop to aim at she may find herself with too much to do.
Blackjack Magic – Plenty to Prove
Stablemate Blackjack Magic rounds out the field but arrives with poor recent form and needs a dramatic revival. On current evidence he looks up against it.
Verdict
This race may come down to race position rather than pure ratings. Tommy’s Oscar is the best horse on paper, but the trip, the ground and the weight all pose questions.
With the likely pace scenario favouring those close to the front, Hillcrest could be the one who gets the race run to suit. His stamina is proven, the handicap mark is workable and he should be well placed throughout.
Selection: Hillcrest
Main danger: Tommy’s Oscar
Each-way value: Credo