This six-runner hunter chase at Carlisle does not look complicated. There is a bit of guesswork around one or two of them, but on the balance of the evidence A Moments Madness is the one they all have to beat.
The case is straightforward enough. He has the strongest HRB rating in the field at 263, which puts him clear of Hollywood Harmon on 228 and the rest. In a race where several have obvious questions to answer, that gives him a solid edge straight away.
Timeform come to much the same view, and it is easy to see why. He ended last season with a proper breakthrough success over fences at Ffos Las on soft ground and that is the best recent Rules form on offer here. He also shaped well in a couple of runs before that, so this is not a horse who fluked one win and disappeared. He has already shown enough to suggest this level is well within reach.
The race setup helps him too. Timeform expect a very weak pace, and that matters in a small-field hunter. These races can turn tactical and messy rather than becoming a test of stamina. A Moments Madness looks the most rounded chaser in the field, and Timeform’s note that he should not be inconvenienced by the likely pace only strengthens the case.
The main threat is Hollywood Harmon. She comes here fitter than the selection and her recent second at Fakenham was a good, honest effort. She also won a maiden hunter at Cartmel last spring, so there is no doubt she is effective in this sphere. The concern is that she may just lack the same upside as A Moments Madness if this turns into a race decided by class rather than fitness alone.
Greater Glory is the interesting unknown. He won two points last March and could easily have a say if ready after the break, but he comes here without any Rules evidence and that makes him harder to trust than the front pair. In a race of this type, that sort of profile can win, but more often it is one to note rather than rely on first time.
The rest look up against it. Bellaney Lord has bits and pieces in the book but not enough to suggest he is suddenly going to improve past the principals. Galon De Vauzelle has been struggling in Ireland and needs a major revival. Settle Down Jill has shown ability in the past, but her hunter debut at Haydock was poor and she has too much to prove.
There is one obvious risk with A Moments Madness and that is the absence. He has been off the track for 326 days, and in hunters that is never ideal. Match fitness can count for plenty, especially against rivals who have had a recent run. But this is not a deep race, and the combination of the best HRB figure, the best Rules form and conditions that should suit still makes him the percentage call.
This looks the sort of contest where it pays not to overcomplicate things. A Moments Madness brings the strongest profile into the race and is the most likely winner. Hollywood Harmon looks the one to chase him home, while Greater Glory is the horse most likely to outrun his lack of Rules form.
Verdict: A Moments Madness to win.