This is a small but interesting Class 5 handicap with only five runners, and the tactical shape of the race looks far more important than the raw ratings.
Timeform expects a very weak pace, which immediately points towards horses likely to race prominently. Around Chelmsford over 6f, steady early fractions often turn these races into a sprint off the home bend, and horses positioned near the lead tend to dominate.
That scenario looks ideal for Spendmore Lane, who arrives here in excellent form and seeking a hat-trick. David Loughnane’s four-year-old has improved markedly since overcoming her earlier stalls issues and has looked a different proposition in her last two starts. She won comfortably at Chelmsford before bolting up at Wolverhampton five days ago, scoring by nearly five lengths and doing so with plenty in hand.
A 5lb penalty raises the question of whether the handicapper may be catching up, but the booking of William Pyle and his 3lb claim offsets part of that burden. More importantly, she looks the most likely horse to sit on or close to the pace in a race lacking obvious front-runners. In a steadily run contest that could prove decisive.
Thurso is probably the most credible rival on ratings. Richard Hughes has a solid strike rate at Chelmsford and the gelding did win in this grade at Wolverhampton last autumn. However, his recent form is uninspiring and he will need to rediscover his best to threaten.
Veteran Tyger Bay has been running well over this course and distance through the winter and was narrowly beaten here in December. That said, his latest run at Kempton was disappointing and at nine years old he looks exposed. If the race develops into a tactical affair from the front he may find himself with too much to do.
Ararat and Whenthedealinsdone both return to this grade but neither arrives in convincing form. Ararat has struggled since winning twice at Southwell in the autumn, while Whenthedealinsdone has not built on last year’s all-weather hat-trick and needs a revival.
With improving recent form, a favourable tactical position and the strongest current profile in the field, this looks a good opportunity for Spendmore Lane to complete the hat-trick.
Verdict: Spendmore Lane should prove hard to beat if securing the expected prominent position in what is likely to be a steadily run race.