Warwick’s 2.40, the Oddschecker Free Bets Novices’ Hurdle over two miles, doesn’t look the deepest race on paper and it should revolve around three main contenders: Ionian, King Al and Wondering Why.
The one with the strongest piece of form is Ionian from the Nicky Henderson yard. His second at Sandown in January stands out as the best run in the race. He travelled well that day and finished behind a fairly useful winner, shaping like a horse with plenty of ability. His next start at Fakenham was disappointing, but that came quickly after the Sandown run and he may simply have been feeling the effects of that effort. Given normal improvement and with Henderson boasting a strong strike rate at Warwick, he looks capable of getting off the mark here.
King Al arrives in winning form after landing a novice hurdle at Ludlow. It was his third start over hurdles and he showed a willing attitude to get the job done. The form has received a small boost since, which suggests the performance was solid enough. However, he now has to concede a penalty and that could make life more difficult against rivals who may still have more improvement to come.
Wondering Why also carries a penalty following his Lingfield win. He quickened clear in good style that day and the performance suggested he is progressing nicely. The concern is that the form of that race hasn’t worked out particularly well, which leaves a question mark about the true strength of the achievement.
Of the rest, Leo Wood shaped with promise when fourth at Ludlow and should improve with experience, although his pedigree suggests he may be better once stepped up in trip. Road To Wembley, formerly a fairly useful staying handicapper on the Flat, makes his hurdling debut for Olly Murphy and is an interesting type, but fitness and jumping will need to be taken on trust.
Overall, Ionian sets the standard on form and is worth another chance to confirm the promise he showed at Sandown. If he returns to that level, he should prove hard to beat.
Selection: Ionian
Main danger: King Al