This 2m3f maiden hurdle at Naas on heavy ground looks fairly straightforward on paper. There are plenty of runners, but very few bring convincing form to the table. When you line up the HRB figures alongside the Timeform notes, one horse still stands out as the most solid option.
That horse is Colcannon.
Stronger form than his rivals
Colcannon has been running in much stronger maiden hurdles than this and that is the key piece of form. His second at Punchestown in a 21-runner race on heavy ground reads particularly well in the context of this contest. He then ran sixth in a huge field at Navan, but that race was deeper than today’s event and the bare result does not tell the whole story.
Before going hurdling he showed plenty of ability in bumpers, winning twice and placing again, which already marks him down as a horse with a fair engine. Importantly, he has proven he can handle testing ground, something that cannot be said with confidence about several of his rivals.
The hood goes back on after he raced a little too freely last time, and if that settles him better he should simply have too much class for this field.
The dangers
Sine Qua Non is the interesting runner. He won a point well and shaped with promise when third in a Navan bumper where the form has worked out nicely. That suggests he has ability and the step into hurdling should suit. The problem is the 414-day absence. If he is fully fit he could be the main threat, but that long lay-off introduces a clear element of risk.
Doctor Elvis has the highest HRB rating in the race and comes from the Gordon Elliott yard, which has a decent record in this type of contest. He ran respectably when fourth at Punchestown last time and the move up in trip should help. Still, he does not quite have the same depth of form as Colcannon and may again find one too strong.
Healys Pub arrives after finishing second here last time and the third horse from that race has won since, giving the form a boost. Even so, he was beaten a long way and would need significant improvement to reverse the gap with the principals.
The rest
The remainder of the field look either limited, inexperienced or long-term projects. Several have shown little in previous starts, while a couple of newcomers are likely to need time and further distance before showing their best.
In a race like this, guessing about unknowns is rarely the smart play when there is a runner with solid, proven form already on the board.
Verdict
This may not be the strongest maiden hurdle run at Naas, but it presents a good opportunity for Colcannon to get off the mark over hurdles. He brings the best form, handles heavy ground and drops into a slightly easier race than he has been contesting.
If he runs to the level he has already shown, he should be winning this.