This seven–runner beginners chase looks fairly straightforward on paper and revolves around the Willie Mullins trio, headed by the short-priced Ballygunner Castle.
The seven-year-old brings the best profile into the race. A useful hurdler, he shaped with plenty of promise when finishing second on his chasing debut at Punchestown before falling four out when still travelling strongly in another beginners’ chase there last time. That run suggested there is plenty more to come over fences. His HRB figure of 315 is comfortably the best in the field, and with conditions looking ideal he sets a clear standard.
Mullins has a strong record at Naas, operating around a 35% strike rate here in recent seasons, and he also saddles Spread Boss Ted and Supersundae. Spread Boss Ted made a respectable start over fences when fourth at Punchestown on heavy ground. He wasn’t knocked about and should improve for the experience, though he still needs to find a fair chunk of improvement to trouble the stable’s apparent first string.
Supersundae is another who could step forward. A smart staying hurdler last season, he shaped as though the run was needed when fifth on his chase debut after an absence. That said, he was beaten a long way and has something to prove now.
The most interesting runner outside the Mullins camp is Champagne Jury from the Gavin Cromwell yard. A fairly useful hurdler, he was given a quiet introduction to chasing when fifth at Gowran last month. He wasn’t knocked about that day and is entitled to come on for the experience. His HRB rating of 292 makes him the clear second on the numbers and he could be the one to chase the favourite home if progressing as expected.
The remainder look up against it. Faulty returns after a lengthy absence and makes his chasing debut after nearly two years off the track. Waittillitellyou, now a twelve-year-old, also tries fences for the first time and that is rarely a recipe for success in a race like this. L’Amiral Fromentin has shown little in two chase starts and would be a surprise winner.
In truth, the race looks Ballygunner Castle’s to lose. He has the strongest form, the highest rating in the field and comes from a yard that dominates these types of races. If his jumping holds together, he should take plenty of beating.
Verdict: Ballygunner Castle should make amends for his last-time fall and can open his account over fences. Champagne Jury looks the most plausible danger, with Spread Boss Ted likely to run into a place.