The 5.12 at Naas is only a six-runner mares’ bumper, but it does not take much working out. Poetisa brings the best form, the strongest connections and the most convincing overall profile, and she looks the one they all have to beat.
Willie Mullins’ mare already has a bumper win on her card, having scored at Cheltenham last spring, and that is the standout piece of form in this field. Since then she has run twice over hurdles, finishing second on both starts, most recently at Navan on heavy ground. That effort reads well enough in the context of this race and, importantly, the switch back to a bumper looks a plus rather than a problem. Her jumping was not polished last time, so returning to this discipline should help.
Timeform are very clear in their view. They make Poetisa the one to beat and note that the likely steady pace should suit her more than some of her rivals. In a small-field bumper on heavy ground, tactical position matters, and a slowly-run race can often favour the mare with the class to travel strongly and strike at the right time. She looks that type.
The obvious danger is Moyneard. She shaped well when second to Kiltybo at Thurles after a long absence and is entitled to come on for the run. There is every chance she will strip fitter here, and if she does improve she could give the favourite most to think about. The slight concern is whether the race will be run to suit her. If they do not go much of a gallop, she may find herself having to make up ground at the wrong time.
Kiltybo is respected after making all at Thurles, where she beat Moyneard by three and a half lengths on heavy ground. She has proven she handles conditions and could again be prominent from the outset, but the penalty asks a question. In testing ground, that extra weight is no gift, and this looks a tougher assignment than the one she faced last time.
Caoimhe is the lurker in the field. Gavin Cromwell’s mare was pitched into a listed bumper at Navan on debut and shaped as though she had ability despite finishing only sixth. She is open to improvement and could easily take a step forward, but she returns from a break and has to prove she can do it in what will be deep ground.
The remaining pair look to have plenty on their plate. Treadonmydreams has shown something in points and is bred to do better, but she lacks the strength of racecourse form of the principals. Forever And A Day has shown very little under Rules and would be a surprise winner.
There is also a small but relevant trend angle to this contest. Recent winners have tended to be the more obvious types rather than out-and-out shocks, and mares aged five or six have dominated the recent roll of honour. Poetisa fits the mould neatly enough.
This is not a race that looks full of hidden depth. On what we know, Poetisa holds the best hand. She has already shown she can win a bumper, she has handled testing conditions, and she comes here with the backing of the strongest yard in the line-up. Unless one of the less exposed mares finds a chunk of improvement, she should take this.
Verdict: Poetisa is the solid call to win, with Moyneard the main danger and Kiltybo next best.