A competitive Class 4 handicap hurdle with ten runners, but the data from both HRB ratings and the Timeform analysis narrows the race down to a small group.
The starting point has to be Got A Dream, who tops the HRB ratings by a clear margin. He arrives seeking a hat-trick after wins at Chepstow and over this course and distance in November. That Warwick win reads particularly well because he proved he handles the track and the trip under similar conditions. The 124-day break shouldn’t be an issue either as he won first time up earlier in the season and his trainer, Nicky Martin, shows a healthy profit when sending out a single runner on the card. Off a mark of 115 he still looks fairly treated.
Ilitch is the main danger. He has been running consistently well this season and his latest second at Doncaster came behind a horse completing a four-timer, which is strong form for this grade. Timeform highlight that the predicted strong pace could play to his strengths as he tends to be ridden patiently and finish his races well. Off 112 he remains on a workable mark and looks sure to be involved again.
Kel Du Large is another with solid claims. He returned to winning ways at Hereford last time and has a notable record when allowed to dominate. The concern is the likely pace scenario. This race looks like it will be run at a strong gallop and if he faces pressure for the lead his effectiveness could be reduced.
Of the others, Mount Anglesby is capable of running well back in this grade but looks fairly exposed from his current mark, while Jukebox King is interesting on handicap debut but may find the tempo of this race a bit searching given his limited experience.
Looking at the overall profile of the race – horses rated in the low to mid-110s, aged between six and seven and arriving in form – Got A Dream fits the bill best. He has the strongest HRB rating in the field, proven Warwick form and still looks on an upward curve.
Selection: Got A Dream
Main danger: Ilitch
Likely pace angle: Kel Du Large