The 4.48 at Warwick, the Volcano Handicap Chase over 3m5f, looks the sort of race where stamina, position and a fair mark matter more than flashy form figures. This is a proper staying handicap, and with Timeform calling the pace forecast very weak, the shape of the race could be just as important as the bare ratings.
That immediately brings House Of Habsburg to the front of the queue.
Christian Williams’ six-year-old has improved sharply since going chasing and arrives here chasing a hat-trick after wins at Uttoxeter and Warwick. The latest success, over 3m1f here in January, suggested there was more to come. He travelled well, jumped soundly enough and looked like a horse who would relish an even stiffer test. Off 105, he is still lightly raced in this discipline and does not look harshly treated despite a 9lb rise.
The likely pace is a major plus. In these marathon handicaps, a slowly-run race can turn into a tactical affair, and that tends to suit a horse who can hold a handy spot rather than one who needs a strong gallop to bring stamina into play. Timeform’s pace note points directly towards House Of Habsburg, and that is hard to ignore.
There are dangers, but they all come with a question.
Mumford’s Magic is progressing and Dan Skelton’s Warwick record commands respect. His Doncaster win was solid, and he still has scope over fences, but this is a much more searching trip and his jumping is not yet bombproof. In a race like this, small errors can add up.
Jubilant is another with obvious claims. He has the best HRB figure on the card, arrives off a win and has done plenty right this season. The issue is that he is now up to 124 and has top weight to carry over nearly three and three-quarter miles. That is not impossible, but it is not ideal in a race that often goes to a horse lower in the weights and still going forward.
Jupiter Des Bordes looks a live each-way player. He won over 3m here in December and shaped as though the trip was too sharp for him at Newbury last time. Back at Warwick and up in distance, he could easily outrun his price. He looks more likely to hit the frame than win, but he has enough in his favour to make the shortlist.
El Granjero is reliable and should appreciate the return to a stamina test after being found out for pace at Sandown, while Unanswered Prayers has bits of staying handicap form that give him a squeak. Even so, neither makes as much appeal as the selection.
The recent history of this race is also worth noting. The last few winners have largely been battle-hardened stayers operating from workable marks rather than obvious class acts. House Of Habsburg, with just 10st 9lb and clear chasing progress, fits the mould well enough.
This is not a race to overcomplicate. The pace should suit him, the trip should suit him, the track suits him and his profile is stronger than anything else in the field.
Verdict: House Of Habsburg is the one to beat and looks the most likely winner.
Main danger: Mumford’s Magic
Best each-way angle: Jupiter Des Bordes