A small but interesting field of seven go to post for this Class 3 staying handicap hurdle at Warwick and the race looks tactically important with the pace forecast expected to be steady. In races like this around Warwick, positioning can matter as much as raw ability, especially over this extended three-mile trip.
The top of the weights is headed by Super Survivor, a genuine staying type who arrives here after a narrow win at Haydock in December. However, that success came on softer ground and he may not be quite as effective on today’s better surface. Carrying 12-1 in a race likely to turn tactical also makes life tougher, and as a ten-year-old he probably has limited improvement left.
Stablemate Bill Joyce is another towards the head of the handicap but comes with plenty of questions. Once a promising novice, his recent record is patchy and he was pulled up on his chasing debut after reportedly bleeding. Returning to hurdles off 136 gives him a chance on old form, but he needs to prove he retains the ability that once suggested he could be much better than this level.
Kyntara is a course winner but his recent form figures make for poor reading. Two recent pull-ups suggest something hasn’t been right and although this is not the deepest race, he looks risky until showing signs of a revival.
Porter In The Park brings solid consistency having finished third on her last four starts. She stays well and usually runs her race, but the problem is obvious – she keeps finding one or two too good. In a steadily run race she could again be playing for place money rather than victory.
Oh My Johnny is more interesting. The Hobbs and White six-year-old returned to form when third in a competitive Ascot handicap last time in first-time cheekpieces. Those are retained here and he is still below his last winning mark. With the expected steady pace likely to suit his running style, he looks one of the more likely winners if building on that effort.
The most intriguing runner, though, is Big Cadillac from the Dan Skelton yard. A bumper winner who beat the now useful Gentleman Toboot, he has yet to fully deliver over hurdles but his profile suggests this longer trip could unlock improvement. He shaped as though a stiffer stamina test would suit when third at Southwell last time and now makes his handicap debut from a workable mark of 116. Given Skelton’s excellent strike rate at Warwick, this looks a very deliberate move.
With several exposed older horses in the line-up, this race could easily fall to the one with the most improvement in hand. Big Cadillac fits that description and the step up to 3m2f may prove the key to unlocking his potential.
Selection: Big Cadillac
Main danger: Oh My Johnny