This juvenile hurdle at Stratford looks a match on paper, and there is no need to dress it up as anything else. The race revolves around Scarlet Moon and Love You Back, with Cloaks Of Gold the one most likely to pick up the pieces if the front pair fail to fire.
Scarlet Moon is the obvious form horse. Archie Watson’s gelding has done more over hurdles than any of these, and his overall profile is the strongest in the field. He beat Love You Back at Warwick in November, has held his own since in better company, and his Listed third at Musselburgh reads very well for a Class 4 like this. The HRB figure backs that up too. He is top-rated on what he has already achieved and, in a weak little race, proven class goes a long way.
The problem for him is that this is not the same test as Warwick. Stratford’s 2m3f on soft ground asks a different question, and that may just bring Love You Back into his own.
Gary and Josh Moore’s runner was behind Scarlet Moon earlier in the season, but there are solid reasons to expect a reversal. First, there is a 7lb swing at the weights, which matters in a race where the pair already look closely matched. Second, and more importantly, Love You Back shapes like a horse ready for further. His latest second at Newbury suggested he was staying on rather than running out of steam, and this extra trip looks likely to suit him better than it does Scarlet Moon.
Timeform has come down on the side of Love You Back, and the logic is sound. This is a horse with some upside still intact, whereas Scarlet Moon may already be showing us most of what he is. That does not make Scarlet Moon opposable as such, but it does make him vulnerable to a rival improving past him under slightly different conditions.
There is a tactical angle as well. Timeform expects a weak pace, and prominent racers are often favoured here. That should help Scarlet Moon, who is likely to be ridden handily. In a small field, that is a clear positive. But soft ground over this trip still puts the emphasis on seeing it out properly, and that is where Love You Back appeals more. He looks the one with a bit more stamina in reserve.
Of the others, Cloaks Of Gold is the only one with a realistic chance of getting involved if the principals underperform. She won at Warwick in December and ran respectably in defeat at Wetherby after that. She is honest enough, handles testing ground and should run her race, but she looks a notch below the top two on both form and scope for improvement.
Both Of Us is interesting only because he is unexposed over hurdles, but this is his first run in this sphere after a break and there is no obvious reason to expect him to be sharp enough to beat the principals straight away. Forever Penywern has a Flat background that gives him some sort of chance, but his hurdling debut was poor and he has work to do. Jersey Tex looks out of his depth.
Recent renewals of this race suggest the market usually has a firm grip on it. This is often won by the obvious horse rather than a hidden one, and that again points us back to the front pair. So it comes down to a simple call: do you side with the horse with the best proven form, or the one who looks ready to improve past him?
For me, the answer is Love You Back. Scarlet Moon sets the standard and is a serious danger, but the combination of a longer trip, softer ground and the weight swing gives Love You Back the edge. He looks the one most likely to get the race run to suit.
Verdict: Love You Back to beat Scarlet Moon, with Cloaks Of Gold best of the rest.