This does not look a deep race. It looks the sort of small-field handicap chase where a horse with a bit of upside can beat older, more exposed rivals, and that points firmly towards Gaelic Rambler.
Timeform have him on top and the case is easy enough to follow. He is lightly raced, unexposed over fences and shaped better than the bare result when third at Southwell last time. He was not knocked about and still did enough to suggest there is more to come. In a race where most of these have shown their hand, that matters.
The market will rightly respect Xcitations. He ran well enough when second at Leicester and this looks another suitable opening. The pace angle is in his favour too. Timeform expect a weak gallop and prominent racers are usually favoured in these races round Stratford. If Jack Andrews gets an easy time on the front end, he will take some pegging back.
The issue is that he is an 11-year-old carrying top weight. He is reliable enough at this level, but he is not improving and there is not much wiggle room off a mark of 121. He looks more solid than exciting.
Non Stop is interesting because the HRB figures give him plenty of respect and he was second in this race last year. That alone makes him hard to dismiss. He is well treated if bouncing back to his better form and Joe Tizzard’s chasers over this sort of trip are not easily ignored. The problem is his fencing. His jumping can go to pieces under pressure and that is a dangerous habit to carry into a race like this.
That is also the issue with Cobbler’s Boy, who has ability but has not looked convincing over fences at all. Dan Skelton does well at Stratford and that keeps him in the discussion, but he needs to sharpen up quickly. Grey Diamond looks on the downgrade, Harel Du Marais wants a different set-up, In This World has gone missing, and Ironica De Thaix has too much to prove on a chase debut.
The recent race trends do not throw up anything complicated. Winners have generally been towards the younger end of the field and near the front of the market. That suits Gaelic Rambler far more than it suits Xcitations.
So this comes down to a simple call. Do you want the exposed veteran with the tactical edge, or the younger horse with scope to improve past them all?
The answer is Gaelic Rambler.
He is not bombproof. He still has to prove he can finish the job over fences. But in a weak Class 4 like this, he is the one horse who looks capable of stepping forward rather than simply running to the same level again.
Verdict: Gaelic Rambler to win, with Xcitations the main danger and Non Stop the one most likely to outrun his price if jumping cleanly.