The 2.10 at Taunton is not a race to overcomplicate. This looks a fairly ordinary Class 4 juvenile hurdle, and the one with the clearest, strongest profile is Mecene.
Jane Williams’ four-year-old brings the best piece of established hurdle form into the race and, just as importantly, he has already shown he can run to a solid level more than once. He was a good second at Wincanton before finishing third at Warwick, and that latest run reads perfectly well in the context of this contest. In a race full of guesswork, that counts for plenty.
From the figures angle, Mecene comes out on top on HRB with 269, narrowly ahead of Sixty’s Rock on 259 and clear enough of the rest. Timeform also make him the one to beat, pointing out that he should not be inconvenienced by the likely steady pace. That is worth noting because this does not shape like a truly run race, and tactical events can catch out inexperienced juveniles. Mecene looks straightforward enough to handle it.
There is also a bit of recent race history on his side. This contest has tended to go to the more obvious type near the front of the market. The last three winners were returned at 11/8, 9/4 and 6/4, so this has not been a race full of shocks. In that respect, Mecene fits the usual mould.
The obvious danger is Sixty’s Rock. Alan King’s gelding is less exposed and should improve again after his Newbury third. He is bred to be useful, and his profile suggests there is more to come. The problem is that, at this stage, he is still trading on promise more than substance. He has the ability to go close, but Mecene has achieved more.
Dakota Star is another with a squeak. He shaped well when third on debut at Hereford and that form has worked out nicely enough. A wind operation since then could help, and the Hobbs and White yard know how to place one. Even so, one run in November and a long absence leave him with questions to answer.
The newcomers Another Enki and See Me Later are the unknown quantities. Both have enough in their pedigrees to be of interest, but debutants in juvenile hurdles are often best watched unless the market speaks loudly. They may have races in them, but this looks a tough starting point against a horse with proven form.
The rest look up against it. Clear Sky, Milady Du Breuil and Ashpriors would all need to find more than they have shown so far, and quite a bit more in some cases.
The bottom line is simple. Mecene has the best form, the best HRB rating, and Timeform also have him on top. In a race lacking depth, that should be enough.
Verdict
Mecene is the percentage call and the most likely winner.
Main danger
Sixty’s Rock
Best of the rest
Dakota Star