The 2.40 at Taunton is not a deep maiden hurdle, and that usually means there is no need to get clever. The race looks to sit between Way Of Stars, Gnomon and Babyken, with Great Dance the only other one worth a second look.
Way Of Stars is the one with the clearest recent form. He shaped with promise on debut over hurdles at Exeter, then took a big step forward when beaten only a neck over this course and distance last month. That is the standout piece of hurdle form on offer. He travelled well, stuck to the job and split two from the Nicholls yard, with Babyken behind him in third. In a race lacking depth, that is the line that matters most.
The other major positive is that he still has room to improve. He was useful on the Flat, changed hands for good money, and looked better for the first-time hood last time. If he builds again on that run, he should be the one they all have to beat.
Gnomon is the danger. His HRB figure is the strongest in the field and he has done little wrong in two hurdle starts, finishing second both times. He also brings solid Flat form, so there is a fair bit of substance to his profile. The concern is that he may be becoming expensive to follow. He has had chances to get his head in front and has found one too good on both hurdle starts. He is reliable, but perhaps not the easiest to trust at a short price.
Babyken will have support because he runs for Paul Nicholls with Harry Cobden on board, and that stable has an excellent record in races like this at Taunton. He has improved with each hurdle run and his latest third here was perfectly respectable. Still, there is no getting away from the fact that Way Of Stars finished in front of him over the same track and trip, and he needs to find more to reverse that form.
Great Dance is the interesting outsider from the main four. She won a bumper on debut and the better ground should suit her more than the soft she faced in a listed event next time. She is not dismissed, but this is a different test and she has to prove she can bring that bumper promise to hurdling.
The recent history of this race points towards a horse with either strong stable backing or already solid form. That does not scream upset. It points straight back to the obvious contenders, and among them Way Of Stars makes the most appeal.
He has the best recent hurdle form, proven course-and-distance ability and the profile of a horse still going the right way. In a race where several have questions to answer, he looks the one with the fewest.
Verdict: Way Of Stars to win, with Gnomon the main danger.