The opening race of the Festival rarely lacks pace, pressure or hype, and this year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks no different. The Irish have depth, class and numbers on their side, but the market has this right: Old Park Star is the horse they all have to beat.
That does not mean he is a giveaway price. It does mean he sets the standard.
There is a fair argument that Ireland are odds-on collectively to win the race. Willie Mullins alone runs a trio headed by Mighty Park and Leader D’Allier, while Talk The Talk brings the strongest established Irish Grade 1 hurdle form after his Dublin Racing Festival win. Add El Cairos and the Irish challenge is deep and dangerous.
But punting is not about backing a country. It is about backing the right horse.
Old Park Star has the best all-round profile in the field. He is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles, has already won at Cheltenham and produced the standout British trial performance when bolting up in Grade 2 company at Haydock. He travelled like a high-class novice, jumped cleanly and put the race to bed in a few strides. That is exactly what you want to see before a Supreme.
The Henderson angle matters too. His recent winners of this race were Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill. That is elite company, and Timeform’s view is that Old Park Star could be cut from a similar cloth. That is not language to ignore.
The likely race shape should suit as well. The Supreme is normally run at a fierce gallop and this year’s pace forecast is strong. Old Park Star looks straightforward, travels well and has the gears to cope with a proper test. Proven Cheltenham form is another major tick. Plenty of talented novices have arrived here with glowing reputations and failed to handle the place. He already has.
The obvious danger is Talk The Talk. He would probably be unbeaten over hurdles but for falling at the last at Leopardstown over Christmas, and he made amends by landing a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. He is battle-hardened, race-fit and has done it in the best Irish novice races. If you want the strongest substance from the Irish side, he is it.
Mighty Park is the wildcard. His Fairyhouse maiden win was visually striking and he could be anything. The concern is experience. One hurdles run is a very light preparation for the white heat of a Supreme, even for a Mullins horse. He may prove top class, but at the prices you are being asked to take a lot on trust.
El Cairos has ability but has not looked bombproof at his hurdles. Leader D’Allier is promising but needs another step forward. Mydaddypaddy and Sober Glory are useful, progressive types, though both need a career best in a race where there may be no margin for error.
So where does that leave the betting?
Old Park Star is the right favourite, but the price is tight enough. Around 9/4 to 5/2, he looks more fair than generous. This is a strong renewal and the Irish team is loaded with upside, so there is no obvious value in steaming into him at cramped odds. He is the most likely winner, just not necessarily the bet of the meeting.
That is the key distinction. The Irish may well supply the winner overall, but the single horse with the fewest questions to answer is Old Park Star.
Verdict
Old Park Star is the percentage call and the deserved favourite.
Talk The Talk looks the main danger.
Mighty Park is the one with the biggest upside.
Predicted 1-2-3
1. Old Park Star
2. Talk The Talk
3. Mighty Park
Betting view
Right favourite, not a giveaway price.
For win purposes, Old Park Star is the pick. For value, Talk The Talk makes more appeal each-way or as the alternative against the favourite.
In a race where the Irish hold a strong hand, I still want the Henderson horse. Old Park Star has the form, the track experience and the profile of a proper Supreme winner.