The 2.00 at Cheltenham is the Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase, and this year’s running looks a straight fight between two class acts: Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes.
There are other good horses in the field, most notably Kargese, but this race should be decided by which of the front two handles the occasion best. On balance, Lulamba is the one to side with.
Why Lulamba is the one
Lulamba brings the strongest completed chase profile into the race. He has already shown top-class form over fences and has done it more than once. His wins at Exeter, Sandown and Newbury show a horse with speed, accuracy and the ability to settle and finish his race properly.
That matters in an Arkle. This is not just about raw talent. It is about jumping at pace under pressure around Cheltenham. Lulamba has already answered those questions. He comes here race-fit, battle-hardened and with the best mix of form and experience in the field.
His HRB rating of 559 and OR of 163 tell the same story. He is the highest-rated horse in the race and deserves to be right at the head of the market.
Kopek Des Bordes is the danger
There is no getting away from the fact that Kopek Des Bordes could be exceptional. He won the Supreme at last year’s Festival and looked a class apart on his sole chase start at Navan. If he reproduces that level and jumps cleanly, he is good enough to win.
The problem is that he has had only one run over fences. That is the key issue. Plenty of brilliant hurdlers have looked banker material for the Arkle, only to find that Cheltenham’s fencing test is a different matter altogether.
He has the engine, but Lulamba has the stronger chase foundation. In a Grade 1 novice chase, that tips the balance.
Kargese has solid place claims
Kargese should not be ignored. She gets weight, has smart Festival form and comes here after a very good run in the Irish Arkle. Timeform’s pace angle suggests a steadier race could suit her, and that makes sense. If this turns tactical, her speed could bring her into it.
Even so, she still needs the front pair to underperform. She looks the most solid option for those looking beyond the obvious two, but she has a bit to find on the figures.
The trends back the principals
Recent Arkle winners have mostly come from the very top of the market and from powerful yards. Henderson and Mullins have dominated the race in recent years, and that is again the case here.
Lulamba fits the usual winning profile well enough: classy, high-rated, unbeaten over fences this season and trained by a yard that knows exactly what is needed to win this race. Kopek Des Bordes also fits on stable power and ability, but he lacks the same depth of chasing experience.
The verdict
This looks a proper championship novice chase, but there is no need to overcomplicate it.
Lulamba is the percentage call. He has achieved more over fences than Kopek Des Bordes, arrives in peak form and looks the most reliable horse in the race. Kopek may yet prove the better horse in time, but for today Lulamba sets the standard.
Selection: Lulamba
Main danger: Kopek Des Bordes