This is not a deep novice handicap hurdle and there is no need to overcomplicate it. Shan’t Wait is the one with the strongest recent profile and he looks the most likely winner of the 2.18 at Sedgefield.
Charlie Longsdon’s six-year-old has taken a step forward since a breathing operation. He finished second at Southwell and then third at Market Rasen, and both runs were solid for the grade. The key point here is the step back up in trip. He shaped as though this return to 2m3f would suit, and in a race full of exposed or limited types, that makes him the percentage call.
Timeform are on the same page. Their verdict is clear enough: Shan’t Wait has run well on his last two starts, those efforts are backed by the figures, and this trip should play to his strengths. In a race where plenty have questions to answer, he has the fewest.
The main danger is Wind Your Neck In. He comes here in good nick after finishing runner-up on his last two starts and he is likely to be suited by the pace setup. Timeform expect a weakly-run race and that should help those racing handily. He is the one most likely to get an easy position near the front.
That said, there is a reason to be cautious. He is still winless over hurdles and has developed a habit of travelling well without getting the job done. In races like this, that matters. He is reliable enough, but not entirely convincing when it comes to putting his head in front.
Star Vantage is another with claims on the bare form, but his record tells the story. He has had plenty of chances and has found ways to get beaten. He is capable of running into the places, but trusting him to win is a different matter altogether.
Of the others, Swingforthefence is the interesting one. He goes handicapping for the first time, steps up in trip and wears first-time cheekpieces. Jennie Candlish has won this race twice in the last ten years, so there is at least a bit of background encouragement. Even so, he still has to show he is good enough.
Saint Polo, Klapton Boy and Dartmhor all have bits and pieces in their favour, but each would need to improve or bounce back. In truth, they look more like supporting players than likely winners.
Recent renewals suggest this is usually a race won by the obvious one rather than a big-priced surprise. The market has tended to be right, and that again points towards keeping things simple.
Verdict
Shan’t Wait is the solid option. He is improving, the trip looks right, and his recent form is the best on offer. Wind Your Neck In is the danger if allowed his own way in front, but he still looks vulnerable late on.
Selection: Shan’t Wait
Main danger: Wind Your Neck In
Best outsider: Swingforthefence