The Ultima is rarely about finding the flashiest horse in the field. It is about finding the one who is well enough treated, stays, jumps and handles the Festival heat. On the figures and the shape of this year’s race, Hyland looks the best fit.
There is no knocking the class of Iroko. He is near the top on the HRB numbers, Timeform are very positive, and his profile says he is one of the best horses in the race. A Martin Pipe winner, a Grand National fourth and a recent Ascot success tell you all you need to know about his ability. The problem is the handicap. A mark of 157 and 12-0 in an Ultima is brutal, even for a horse as talented as him. He can win, but he has no hiding place.
Jagwar is the obvious one from the same yard. His Cheltenham form is rock solid, he won the Plate at this meeting last year and he has run two excellent races here this season. He is clearly a major player. But he is short enough in the market for a horse whose jumping can still come under pressure, and this race is not one where you want any doubts at the fences. Timeform’s pace note also leans away from him and towards another.
That horse is Hyland.
From an HRB angle, he is not screaming off the page as the top-rated runner, but he is high enough in the pack and, more importantly, he looks extremely well placed by the handicapper. He is a 9yo off 143 with 11-0, which is exactly the sort of weight and mark that often lands this race. The recent winners back that up. Myretown won off 127, Chianti Classico off 143, Corach Rambler off 146 and 140. Hyland sits right in the sweet spot.
He also has the course credentials that matter in the Ultima. He is already a dual course-and-distance winner over fences here. That is a big tick. Cheltenham over three miles in a Festival handicap is not the place to be guessing. You want proof, and Hyland has already shown he can handle the track, the trip and the demands of a proper staying chase.
The Timeform view strengthens the case. Their pace note says that hold-up horses need plenty going for them in this race at this trip, and specifically states that Hyland has more going for him than Jagwar if the race pans out normally. In a big-field handicap, that is a meaningful edge. These races are often decided by position, rhythm and who gets the run of things. If one contender is better suited by the likely tempo, that matters.
His best piece of recent form also gives him a strong chance. In the Silver Cup at Ascot, he finished fourth but shaped better than the bare result. Timeform note he would likely have gone very close but for a bad mistake two out. He lines up here off the same mark, and first-time cheekpieces could help sharpen him up at the business end. In other words, the handicapper has not punished him, and this race has likely been the target.
There are dangers, obviously. Myretown is last year’s winner and comes from a stable that knows exactly what is needed for this race. He is very well capable of bouncing back after a poor run over an unsuitable marathon trip. Handstands has raw ability, but this trip still asks a question and he has looked vulnerable late on in stronger races. Quebecois is interesting from a low weight and may still have a fair bit in hand, but he is being asked to do it on trust in a race that usually finds out any weakness.
So it comes back to the same point. Iroko may be the best horse. Jagwar may be the sexy Festival handicap pick. But Hyland looks the best handicap bet. He has the mark, the course form, the trip, the pace setup and the right profile for the race.
There is a fair case against him. He has not won this season, he has been off for 80 days and he does need to show the spark is still there. But once you strip the race back to what usually wins an Ultima, he keeps coming out near the top. He looks like the horse most likely to run his race under these exact conditions.
Verdict: HYLAND to win.
Main dangers: Iroko and Jagwar.
Best outsider: Quebecois.