This is hardly a vintage Class 5, but that does at least make the shape of the race easier to read. In a small-field staying handicap chase with very little obvious pace, the answer may be the simplest one: Scottish King looks the most likely winner.
He comes here off the back of a Market Rasen win over 3m on heavy ground and, while that was not a strong race, this is no deeper. More importantly, he has been running consistently well in this grade for a while. His recent placed efforts at Sedgefield and Catterick read perfectly well in the context of this contest, and his HRB rating of 273 is comfortably the best on offer. In races like this, that sort of edge is hard to ignore.
The tactical angle matters too. Timeform expects a very weak pace, and that could prove decisive. These small-field staying chases often turn into position-and-jumping affairs rather than relentless tests of stamina. Scottish King is the one most likely to be ridden handily enough to take advantage. If Philip Armson keeps him prominent and out of trouble, he should have every chance of taking control before the race gets serious.
The chief threat may be Minella Kaiser, who is less exposed than most of these and represents a yard that does well at Plumpton. He ran a fair race when second over course and distance to Felton Bellevue last month, and the first-time cheekpieces suggest connections are looking for a bit extra after a poor hurdle run. There is some upside there, which cannot be said for all of these, but the obvious problem is that he is still a maiden over fences. At some point, potential has to turn into a win.
Felton Bellevue is respected on course form, especially after his C&D success in February, but he remains an unreliable type. His third at Huntingdon eight days ago was modest enough, and at 11 years old you are not dealing with a horse likely to find much improvement. He can run well, but he is not one to trust blindly.
Gata Ban is the interesting one if the breathing operation has had the desired effect. Timeform is prepared to give her another chance, and on her best hurdle form she would not be out of place here. The trouble is that her chase efforts since a decent second at Fakenham have been poor, and in a race likely to be tactical she may not be the one best suited by events.
That leaves Hilltown, who has little in his recent profile to recommend him. A previous course win is a positive, but his current form is weak and he looks up against it.
There are no meaningful past race trends to lean on because there is no corresponding previous running, so this comes down to current form, ratings and likely race set-up. On all three counts, Scottish King makes most appeal.
He is not bombproof, and no odds-on or near-favourite in this grade ever is, but he is the runner with the fewest questions to answer. In a race full of ifs, maybes and exposed handicappers, that is usually enough.
Verdict: Scottish King
Main danger: Minella Kaiser