The 4.10 at Taunton is not a deep Class 5 handicap hurdle, and that usually means one thing: side with the horse who is still improving rather than the ones we already know plenty about.
That points firmly to Walkinthepresent.
With Special John taken out, this race has lost its most obvious solid contender. What is left is a field of exposed stayers, inconsistent older handicappers and one or two possibles. In that sort of race, the safest play is to latch on to the runner with the strongest recent upward curve, and that is exactly what Walkinthepresent brings.
He has taken a step forward since moving into handicaps. His third at Uttoxeter was encouraging enough, but the run that really matters is his latest at Chepstow over 3m, where he was beaten only a length and a bit. That effort suggested two things. First, this trip suits. Second, there is more to come from him off a mark of 85.
Neil Mulholland’s gelding is only six, lightly raced compared to most of these, and he does not need to find much to win a race of this standard. In truth, several of these have had plenty of chances and look vulnerable from a win point of view.
The obvious danger is Washington Singer. He has been running respectably without quite getting the job done, but the step up in trip could help and the expected steady pace may play in his favour. Taunton can reward horses ridden handily in this sort of race, so he is the one most likely to capitalise if Walkinthepresent gets shuffled into a tactical battle.
Chief Black Robe is another with a decent chance of going well. His recent second over fences was a step back in the right direction and the return to a longer trip is a plus. The problem is simple enough: he has become hard to trust over hurdles and is better viewed as a place contender than a convincing win bet.
There are bits of cases for one or two others. Shuil Ceoil is on a workable mark but is too unreliable. Inchagoill Lady has course-and-distance form and could outrun her price on drying ground. Hard Stare is the unexposed one on handicap debut, but backing him would be more hope than evidence.
The key point is that this race does not look strong. In weak staying handicaps, unexposed profiles matter. Walkinthepresent has that profile, and his recent form says he is heading the right way at the right time.
He is not bombproof. A muddling gallop would not be ideal, and that is the one reason to keep Washington Singer onside. Even so, on balance, Walkinthepresent is the most likely winner.
Verdict
Walkinthepresent is the pick.
Washington Singer is the main danger.
Chief Black Robe appeals most for the places.