This is not a race to get cute with. You need a novice who stays, jumps and still has a bit in hand.
On the raw HRB figures, Grand Geste is the standout. He tops your list on 385, well clear of Wade Out (331) and Will Do (303). That matters, because he has already proven he can keep finding over a proper staying trip, and his Haydock form says stamina will not beat him.
But this race is not won on raw figures alone. It is won by the right type.
The modern National Hunt Challenge points towards a progressive 7yo or 8yo, usually carrying something around the 11st 3lb to 11st 7lb range, with enough class to cope but still some room to improve. Newton Tornado fits that better than most. He is a 7yo, runs off 133, carries 11st 3lb, and comes from the Rebecca Curtis yard, which won this race last year with Haiti Couleurs off a very similar mark.
That is not a throwaway link. It is the right profile again.
His chase record is solid for this sort of test. He is two from two when completing, and his Doncaster win over 3m was achieved with authority. He jumped soundly, travelled well and shaped like a horse who will improve again for this marathon trip. Timeform clearly likes him too, making him the pick of the home team, and their pace note says the expected even gallop should suit him more than Backmersackme.
That is a big plus.
Backmersackme is the obvious danger. He is the right age, the right mark, and his Cheltenham second in October followed by that Leopardstown handicap win gives him a seriously strong piece of big-field staying handicap form. Emmet Mullins already knows what it takes to win this race. The only question is whether this extra test of stamina brings out even more, or just stretches him.
Grand Geste is the awkward one for my selection, because the HRB case for him is rock solid. He has the best figure, the best proven stamina and a straightforward racing style. If he gets into a rhythm, he could take plenty of passing. But I just wonder whether this sharper Festival test, against less exposed types, finds him out for a bit of finishing kick late on.
Timeform’s top call, Iceberg Theory, is easy to respect. He is lightly raced, unexposed and bred to relish this trip. But he has been off 107 days, and I would rather side with one who comes here with a touch more recent hard form in the book.
So the self-critique is simple. If you are a strict HRB man, you will say Grand Geste should be the bet. That is a fair argument. But once I fold in the race trends, the yard angle, the likely pace set-up and the scope for improvement, I come back to the same horse.
Verdict: NEWTON TORNADO
Main danger: BACKMERSACKME
Best value outsider: GRAND GESTE