The 4.30 at Plumpton, the John Ellis Memorial Handicap Hurdle, is not a deep race, but it is an interesting one. With just six runners and very little obvious pace on paper, this looks likely to turn tactical. In that sort of contest, position matters, and the horse most likely to be suited by the setup is Lasko Des Obeaux.
Harry Derham’s five-year-old is the least exposed runner in the field and that is a big plus in a race where most of these have already shown their level. He has only had three runs over hurdles, shaped well on debut when ridden prominently, and got back on track last time at Carlisle. That was over a shorter trip, but he kept on well enough to suggest this move up to around 2m5f could bring improvement.
This is also his handicap debut, and an opening mark of 112 looks workable. In a weak Class 4, that gives him a solid chance if he settles into a good rhythm near the front. With the pace forecast looking weak, that could be a major advantage.
The main threat is Valadon, who has the best HRB rating in the field and the strongest winning profile. He is a three-time hurdle winner and his fourth at Wincanton in January was not a bad effort in testing ground. The first-time tongue-tie could help, but he has become a hard horse to trust. He often shapes as though he should do more than he actually delivers, and at a short enough price he does not make a huge amount of appeal as the answer.
Oakley’s Way is another with a fair chance. He won at Taunton in November and his third at Wincanton in December reads well for this grade. Dropping back in class and going back up in trip are both positives. He looks the type to run his race, but he may be vulnerable if this turns into a tactical affair and the principals get first run on him.
Of the others, Baltray is not impossible if returning fresh in good order, but his profile is patchy and he comes with risks. Galactic Charm has been sliding down the weights, though his recent runs do not suggest he is about to take advantage. Moon Hunter is fitted with first-time blinkers, but there is little in his recent form to suggest a revival is imminent.
There is not much point overcomplicating this. In a race lacking depth and pace, the most sensible play is the unexposed horse who should be well placed and has more to offer than his rivals.
Verdict: Lasko Des Obeaux is the one to beat.
Likely dangers: Valadon and Oakley’s Way.