The Sun Racing Plate is rarely a race for guesswork. It is usually won by a horse with a workable mark, enough tactical speed to hold a position, and the class to cope when the race turns serious coming down the hill. This year’s renewal looks no different.
The first thing to note is the likely shape of the race. Timeform expects a strong pace and that matters. In a big-field Cheltenham handicap, that usually puts the emphasis on clean jumping, patience and the ability to travel behind the speed rather than forcing it. Horses that do too much too soon often pay for it from the home turn.
That is a big part of the case for Madara.
He has already shown he can operate in the better Cheltenham handicaps, shaping well in races like the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup, and his latest run at Kempton was the sort that catches the eye for a Festival handicap. He travelled well, finished with purpose and looked as though a race like this was the plan. Off a mark of 140 with 11st, he sits in a very workable part of the handicap and the return of cheekpieces could sharpen him up at the right time. In a race where plenty have questions to answer, he makes a lot of sense.
There are, of course, dangers.
No Questions Asked is the obvious one on the HRB figures. He comes out best on the numbers and is clearly progressing over fences. Ben Pauling has already won this race and the profile is attractive enough. The concern is whether a lightly raced chaser can cope with the demands of a rough, relentless Festival handicap off 11st 9lb. He has the talent, but this is a very different environment from a small-field graded race.
Mclaurey is another who commands respect. He is still relatively unexposed, looks fairly treated off 133 and comes from a yard that knows how to land a touch in this race. If he improves again for the return to handicaps, he could easily go close. He has the look of a horse with more to come, which is always dangerous in a contest like this.
For punters looking beyond the obvious, Zurich stands out as the each-way play. He is already a course-and-distance winner, has a nice racing weight, and shapes as though a strongly run race around here will suit him very well. He does not need to improve a huge amount to get involved.
The trends help narrow the field too. Recent winners have generally been well-handicapped types rather than class acts lumping top weight. Horses sitting in the mid-130s to low-140s have often been the sweet spot, and that again points away from some of the burdened runners near the top of the list and towards the likes of Madara, Mclaurey and Zurich.
In the end, this looks a race to side with the horse who has the best combination of track form, pace setup and handicap position. That horse is Madara. He looks primed for a big run, he should get the race run to suit, and he has already shown enough at Cheltenham to suggest this is his day.
Verdict
Madara is the pick to win the Sun Racing Plate.
Mclaurey is the main danger.
Zurich makes most appeal each-way.
No Questions Asked is the HRB-driven threat if his class carries him through.