This does not look a deep race and there is no point dressing it up as one. Most of the field arrive with holes in their profile, poor recent form, or something to prove over fences. In that sort of contest, the sensible play is to side with the horse bringing the strongest current case to the table.
That horse is Kally Des Bruyeres.
He heads the HRB figures on 269, which is a clear standout in this field, and Timeform come to the same conclusion. He won at Huntingdon eight days ago, did it despite making a mistake, and lines up here off the same mark of 83. In a race full of unreliable types, recent winning form counts for plenty.
The obvious question is the switch to fences. This is his first run over the larger obstacles, so there is an element of trust involved. But this is not a deep or battle-hardened line-up, and he does not need to be an exceptional chaser to take this. If he jumps soundly enough, he should simply have too much for these.
The biggest threat may be Blackijo Dagrostis, who is still a maiden but has slipped to a workable mark and shaped a bit better at Ludlow last time. He is not one to get carried away with, but in a race of this standard he has to be respected. The concern is that Timeform expect a weak pace, and that may not play to his strengths if he gets shuffled back in a tactical affair.
Applicationofcash is another with a place chance. He may get a better position than some of these if the race turns into a crawl, and the 7lb claim helps. Even so, he has not really built on his Huntingdon third and looks more likely to run into a place than win.
Of the rest, Paddy In The Caddy has become hard to trust. His old form gives him a chance, but two recent pull-ups and a generally sour profile make him risky. Away For The Night has a bit of potential going chasing, but he remains a maiden and looks short enough for what he has achieved. Holy Legend is easy to leave alone after a poor chase effort here and a refusal next time.
Recent winners of this race have tended to be younger handicappers rather than exposed veterans, and that again points towards Kally Des Bruyeres. He fits the shape of the race better than most and, crucially, comes here with form rather than excuses.
This is not the sort of race to overcomplicate. The favourite is favourite for a reason.
Verdict: Kally Des Bruyeres is the one to beat and should win if taking to fences.
Main danger: Blackijo Dagrostis.
Best of the rest: Applicationofcash.