This is only a five-runner Class 5, but it is still a race worth getting right because the market is unlikely to miss much. In small fields like this, the winner is often the horse with the clearest fit for the track, trip and pace setup rather than the one with the flashiest raw rating.
The one that makes most appeal is Tuba.
He is not the top horse on the HRB figures, with Prince Quattro coming out best there on 276 against Tuba’s 246, but this is a case where the bare ratings do not tell the full story. Tuba has already shown he can handle this exact test, being a course-and-distance winner at Wolverhampton in December, and that is a major positive in a race where not many bring rock-solid credentials for an extended two miles around here.
His last run at Chelmsford was disappointing on the face of it, but Timeform’s view looks fair enough: he did too much too soon. That was more a ride-race scenario than proof he has gone off the boil. Back at Wolverhampton, where he has already proven he stays and travels, he looks well placed to bounce back.
Prince Quattro is the obvious danger and probably the percentage alternative. He has the best HRB rating, arrives in fair nick, and James Owen does well enough at the track. He is a likeable, consistent type and there is no doubt he has the form to be involved again. The issue is that he has top weight and, while dependable, he does not have Tuba’s proven C&D edge. In a race this ordinary, that could be the deciding factor.
Wasthatok is the interesting runner and the one Timeform are leaning towards. The recent hurdles form has been productive, Billy Loughnane is a positive booking, and he is clearly fit. But there is a catch: he is still a maiden on the Flat, and this does not look certain to be run at a searching gallop. In a steadily-run race, proven flat track position and course form can matter more than jumping fitness, and that just makes him opposable at the prices.
Of the other two, King’s Cruiser has a bit of scope as a lightly-raced four-year-old and first-time blinkers could sharpen him up, but he still has to show he truly wants this sort of staying trip. Capone looks regressive and needs a leap of faith.
There is no great mystery here. Tuba has the best profile for the race as it is likely to be run. He has already done it over course and distance, is back in a modest contest, and has the tactical excuse of a poor last run rather than a hard form knock.
Verdict
Tuba is the most likely winner. Prince Quattro is the main danger, while Wasthatok looks the one most likely to nick a place if the race turns into a slog.
Predicted 1-2-3
Tuba
Prince Quattro
Wasthatok
I can also turn this into a sharper “tips column” style post or a longer blog with a stronger betting angle.