This is not a race to get clever in. It is a modest Class 5 handicap hurdle, full of runners with questions to answer, so the best approach is to focus on the horse with the strongest recent piece of form for this exact test.
That points straight to Prairie Diamond.
He shaped better than the bare result when third over this course and distance in January. A bad mistake 4 out cost him ground and momentum, yet he still stuck on well enough to finish close up. In a race like this, proven C&D form counts for plenty, and that run says he is very capable of winning off this sort of mark.
The handicapper has given him a chance as well. He runs from the same mark of 93, and Harry Hoyles takes off 5 lb, which makes him look even better treated. Add in the breathing operation since that last run and there is a fair chance he can find a bit more.
The obvious danger is Thankyouandplease, who comes here after winning at Wincanton four days ago. He is clearly thriving, but there are reasons not to dive in at a short price. He is turned out quickly, has to carry a 7 lb penalty, and goes back up in trip after looking suited by a drop to the minimum last time. In a weak race he can still go well, but he looks more vulnerable than the market may suggest.
Taritino is another worth respecting. He is back to his last winning mark, likes the track and should appreciate better ground. He is not bombproof, but he is one of the few with a realistic each-way case if the principals fluff their lines.
Parikarma is not without hope either after a decent comeback run, but this is a deeper race than it first looks for a mare coming off a hard race after a long absence. She is more place than win for me.
As for Jetty May, the stable name will attract support and the Nicholls Taunton stats are strong, but the horse still has to produce on the track. Her hurdle form to date is only fair and she needs to improve plenty now going handicapping.
So the race looks fairly straightforward.
Prairie Diamond has the best recent C&D form, the right mark, a useful claim and fewer doubts than most of these. In a race where plenty can be picked apart, he makes the most appeal as the one most likely to run his race.
Verdict
Prairie Diamond to beat Thankyouandplease, with Taritino the best of the rest.
Bet
Prairie Diamond – win