This 0-60 apprentice handicap over 1m½f does not look a deep race, and the market has already latched on to the right pair. The key form is the course-and-distance contest here 10 days ago, where Pessoa beat Book Of Life by a neck, and it would be no surprise at all if those two dominate the finish again.
Pessoa comes here as the HRB top-rated runner on 255 and deserves plenty of respect. He is a proven Wolverhampton specialist, already a three-time winner over this course and distance, and there is obvious appeal in siding with a horse who knows exactly how to get the job done in these races. He showed that again last time, sticking his head down where it mattered and getting the verdict over Book Of Life. Another solid run looks assured.
The case for Book Of Life is that he may have been the better horse on the day despite finishing second. HRB has him only narrowly behind on 250, and Timeform’s view is hard to ignore: he was narrowly denied and probably would have won with a more straightforward effort. In a race where the pace is expected to be no stronger than steady, that matters, because Timeform also suggests that scenario should suit Book Of Life more than Pessoa. From stall 3, he should get a handy position and have every chance to settle and attack late.
That is enough to make him the pick. In low-grade handicaps you do not need to overcomplicate it. He arrives in form, the recent course form is there for all to see, and the set-up looks slightly more favourable this time round. If he applies himself properly, he has every chance of reversing the placings.
Of the others, Concert Boy looks the most solid option for the places. He has been running consistently without winning, and this drop in grade gives him a squeak of getting involved. Still, he does not have the same recent Wolverhampton edge as the front two and may again find one or two too strong. Pitney has bits of form that give him a chance, but he has become expensive to follow and does not look an obvious winner. Always Fearless is not without interest after a fair return, especially as he has winning course-and-distance form, but at his age and with his patchy profile he is more of an each-way thought than a strong win proposition.
The remainder look up against it. Kaaress has won over the trip before but is back in a slightly tougher race than the one she won at Lingfield. Ghaiyyath Park has shown little for the new yard, Scarlet Widow has plenty to prove after changing hands, and Sovereign Lad returns from a break with headgear and wind surgery to help him, but he is being asked to do a lot on his first run back.
This looks a straightforward race to read. Pessoa is solid, proven and sure to be popular, but Book Of Life has the profile of a horse ready to get his turn. He has the recent form, the draw, and the likely race shape in his favour.
Verdict: Book Of Life to beat Pessoa, with Concert Boy the one for third.