This is not a race to get clever with. It is a modest Class 6 for three-year-olds over 1m4f, and most of the field are either badly exposed, limited, or still trying to prove they stay.
In races like this, the safest angle is usually the horse that has already shown it can handle the trip and the grade. That points firmly towards Crown Inn To Win.
His latest second at Southwell is the standout piece of recent form in the field. He improved plenty for the step up in distance, went clear with the winner, and posted the best HRB figure on offer. Off a mark of 52, he does not need to improve much more to go one better here. In a race full of guesswork, he is the one with the most solid evidence behind him.
The main danger looks to be Sweet Love. Timeform are keen on her, and the case is easy enough to see. She shapes like this longer trip could suit, and in what is expected to be a slowly-run race, being ridden handier could play to her strengths. Charlie Johnston’s runners stepping up in trip are also a positive angle. The problem is that she still has to prove she can finish the job. She has had chances and does not arrive with the same hard piece of staying form as the favourite.
Wedonttellthetruth is the potential improver. He goes handicapping for the first time, steps up in trip, and gets first-time headgear with Billy Loughnane booked. That is enough to make him interesting. Still, he is being backed more on potential than achievement, and at the prices he makes less appeal than the favourite.
Of the rest, Corduroy was behind Crown Inn To Win last time and did not look like a horse crying out to reverse that form. Hengist Pod and Song Of The Stars are possible improvers for the step up in trip, but both need to find plenty. Jerseygeordie looks out of his depth.
The key point is simple. Crown Inn To Win has already done what several of these are only being expected to do. He has shown clear improvement for 1m4f, he is on a workable mark, and his latest run is the best recent form in the race.
This is not a contest crying out for a big-priced play. It is a race to keep it simple.
Verdict: Crown Inn To Win
Main danger: Sweet Love
Best of the rest: Wedonttellthetruth