The Champion Hurdle does not need dressing up. This year’s renewal looks deep, but the answer is still clear enough.
The New Lion is the one to beat.
There are solid cases for both Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead, and between them they bring the strongest recent Grade 1 form. Lossiemouth is the proven class act, a dual Cheltenham Festival winner with the best Timeform figure in the field at 176. Brighterdaysahead comes here off a decisive Irish Champion Hurdle win and has looked a top-notcher all season. But when you strip this race back to what matters most — track, pace, profile and upside — The New Lion makes the most appeal.
Timeform has him on 172p, and that p is important. It tells you he is still improving. In races like this, that matters more than ever. Established stars can run to their mark. The one still climbing can go past it.
His Cheltenham form is already there. He won the Baring Bingham here last season and followed that with a sharp success in the International in January. That was over this course and trip and it confirmed he has the tactical speed and finishing kick for a Champion Hurdle. He is unbeaten in completed hurdle starts, travels strongly and has done little wrong.
The likely race shape also points in his direction. Timeform expects a strong pace, and that should suit a horse like The New Lion, who is usually ridden with patience. In this race, on this track, that is a major plus. A searching gallop can expose anything that does not quite get home up the hill, and it can also set things up for one delivered late.
That brings us to the mares.
Lossiemouth is the danger. No question. She has class, course form and the turn of foot to settle a race in a few strides. Her second to Brighterdaysahead at Leopardstown was below her very best, but Willie Mullins reaches for first-time cheekpieces and that could sharpen her up. If she returns to top form, she is right there.
Brighterdaysahead has done nothing but improve for Gordon Elliott and she deserved her Irish Champion Hurdle win. She is tough, genuine and already proven at the highest level. The concern is whether this race will set up quite as well for her if the tempo is relentless. She tends to race handier, and if they go hard early, she may be vulnerable to something finishing stronger late on.
The trends do not throw up many negatives for the main selection either. Recent Champion Hurdle winners tend to arrive with top-level form, a touch of freshness and the class to cope with a championship pace. Most are aged between six and eight, and most come here either unbeaten or near enough at the trip that their profile still carries momentum. The New Lion fits that mould perfectly.
As for the rest, they look to be playing for places unless the principals underperform. Golden Ace deserves respect as last year’s winner and arrives as a likeable, reliable mare, but she may need things to fall right again. Alexei has improved a good deal this season and clearly likes Cheltenham, though this is much tougher. Tutti Quanti is progressive but has a lot to prove at this level. Poniros is interesting without quite screaming winner. The others look up against it.
So the call is straightforward.
The New Lion has the right blend of course form, tactical speed, improvement and race set-up. Lossiemouth may still be the classiest horse in the line-up on what she has already done, but The New Lion is the one most likely to produce the best performance on the day.
Verdict
The New Lion to win the Champion Hurdle.
Main dangers
Lossiemouth
Brighterdaysahead
Predicted 1-2-3
The New Lion
Lossiemouth
Brighterdaysahead