The Fred Winter is rarely a race to overcomplicate, but it is a race where you have to separate flashy novice form from a horse actually set up for a 22-runner Festival handicap.
The first thing to note is the profile of recent winners. This race has been kind to unexposed four-year-olds with a bit of Flat pace, often from strong Irish yards, and usually carrying a workable weight rather than lumping top burden. Joseph O’Brien has won three of the last ten, Gordon Elliott has a terrific record, and Paul Nicholls has also landed it before. The market gets this race wrong often enough, so you do not need to be afraid of a double-figure price.
On the figures I have in front of me, the Henderson pair are the obvious starting point. Mustang Du Breuil sits on an HRB figure of 444, with Manlaga on 443, and that is a proper signal in a race like this. They are not just topping one set of numbers by accident; both arrive with solid substance to their form.
Manlaga is easy to like. He won at Auteuil, then stepped forward again for Henderson, finishing second in the listed race at Doncaster before beating Pourquoi Pas Papa and The Mighty Celt in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock. He is progressive, straightforward and very much the type to run his race. At around 7/1, though, he looks more like the solid one than the well-treated one.
For me, the better bet and the one most likely to win is MUSTANG DU BREUIL.
His case is straightforward. He was already a juvenile winner in France, won tidily at Doncaster for Henderson, and then improved again when third in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton. That is strong form for a race like this, and the handicapper has only asked him to run off 129. In a Fred Winter, that is fair. More importantly, the Timeform pace forecast is a big tick. They expect an extreme gallop and make the point that prominent racers can be vulnerable over this trip under these conditions. In plain English, this could be set up for a horse who can travel, settle and come through late. Timeform specifically flags Mustang Du Breuil as a better fit for the likely shape of the race than Winston Junior.
That matters.
Winston Junior is the obvious danger on raw potential. He looked good at Ascot and Timeform have him as the verdict horse. But that was a very different test. He made all there; doing that in a Fred Winter is another matter entirely, especially with this much pace on paper. If he gets taken on early, he could be vulnerable up the hill.
The Irish challenge is strong, as usual. Saratoga is the interesting one. Padraig Roche won this with Brazil and the horse has the look of one laid out for the job. The Timeform note about him trading much shorter in-running last time is worth taking seriously, and he is one for the shortlist. Glen To Glen also comes from the right yard for the race, but I would rather have the one with the stronger recent body of hurdle form. Ammes has claims off 128 and Sean Bowen is a plus, though this is a much deeper race than the small-field events he has been contesting.
Now for the self-check.
The obvious argument against Mustang Du Breuil is lack of experience. Three hurdle runs is not much going into a rough Festival handicap, and this is his first go in a field of this size. Manlaga has already shown he can win a decent British juvenile contest and Saratoga may well have been trained specifically for this. They are legitimate concerns.
Even so, when I go back through it, I still come down on the same horse. He has the right mark, the right recent form, the right trainer, and crucially the right likely pace set-up. In this race, that is enough for me.
Verdict: Mustang Du Breuil
Main dangers: Manlaga, Saratoga, Winston Junior
Best value angle: Mustang Du Breuil at the prices