This is not a race to overcomplicate.
The winner should come from the three at the head of the market, and for me Cher Monsieur is the one who makes the most appeal. He arrives here after getting off the mark at Newcastle in a competitive 16-runner handicap and, more importantly, he did it the right way. He travelled well enough, stuck at it when challenged and showed a proper attitude to get the job done. In a race like this, that counts for plenty.
He has only gone up 4 lb for that success, which looks fair rather than harsh, and this still does not look a demanding contest for the grade. Timeform’s view of the pace is also interesting. They expect a weakly run race, and that could be a major factor. Cher Monsieur looks the sort who will be well served by a steady tempo, whereas one or two of his main rivals may prefer a stronger test.
The chief threat is clearly Harbour Light. His handicap debut second at Chepstow was a big step forward and he shaped like a horse who would improve for this longer trip. On potential alone, he is a serious danger. The concern is that his jumping was not especially fluent last time, and in what may turn into a tactical affair, any mistakes could prove costly. He looks capable of winning a race of this nature before long, but there is a chance today’s setup is not absolutely ideal.
Ballyhiho is the other obvious player. Her recent form is solid and she has already shown she can be effective when ridden prominently, which is often an asset around Stratford. The issue is that she returns from a break, has to give weight away all round, and the stable’s recent form is not an entirely comforting sign. She is respected, but not quite as persuasive as the other two.
The rest need a leap of faith. A few are unexposed, but most have shown too little to fancy with any confidence. In a race lacking depth, that can sometimes open the door to a surprise, but it still makes sense to stay with the proven and progressive options.
There is also a small recent race trend worth noting. The last two winners carried low weights and were rated in the low 80s, which fits Cher Monsieur rather better than Ballyhiho. It is not a trend to follow blindly, but it does support the overall case.
Everything taken together, Cher Monsieur looks the percentage call. He has the recent win, a workable mark, a race shape likely to suit and fewer obvious negatives than his rivals.
Verdict: Cher Monsieur can follow up.
Main danger: Harbour Light
Best of the rest: Ballyhiho