The 4.20 at Stratford is not a race to overcomplicate. It is a small-field Class 4 handicap chase over an extended 2m6f on soft ground, and the answer is very likely to come from the top end of the market.
For me, Jeu D’Opale is the one to beat.
Venetia Williams’ gelding comes here off the back of a decisive win at Wincanton, where he looked far more at home back over fences. That was only his second start in British handicap chases after a spell over hurdles, and the performance suggested there is still room in his mark despite a 9lb rise. He travelled strongly, jumped well enough and, crucially, found plenty in the mud. In these staying handicap chases at this time of year, that counts for plenty.
The obvious threat is Star Of Affinity, who has the best HRB figure in the field and arrives after getting the job done at Plumpton. He looks solid, straightforward and likely to be ridden handier than some of these, which is no bad thing round Stratford. Timeform’s pace note is worth respecting as hold-up horses can be at a disadvantage here, and that does give him a tactical edge over some of his rivals. The slight concern is whether his recent win flatters him a touch, given it came in a two-runner race, and whether this deeper stamina test on soft ground will stretch him more than the market expects.
Batwomen is probably the most interesting of the rest. She had been shaping like a mare on the upgrade before disappointing when favourite at Huntingdon. That run may be worth forgiving. She was trying 3m for the first time, her stamina looked to give way, and she has had a breathing operation since. Back slightly in trip, she could easily bounce back into the frame and would not be a surprise if she ran better than her current price suggests.
As Legends Have It has enough ability to get involved, but he is starting to look a little frustrating. He has been placed a few times and has shown promise, yet he was well beaten last time and does not arrive with the same sense of momentum as the principals.
Realta Liath has bits of form that give her a squeak, particularly her Cheltenham run, but she needs to put a poor latest effort behind her. Noche Negra has questions to answer after two disappointing runs this season, while Streamsforth Lad has yet to convince over fences and looks too risky. Pescatorius looks up against it.
Recent renewals of this race have often gone to experienced staying chasers who can cope with a proper test, and this year’s contest looks likely to be run along similar lines. You want a horse that will jump, travel and keep finding when the race starts in earnest from the back straight.
That points me back to Jeu D’Opale.
He looks the one with the most upside in the field, he handles testing ground, and he still has the profile of a horse who may not have reached his ceiling over fences in Britain. Star Of Affinity is the danger, especially if getting an easy time of it near the pace, but Jeu D’Opale is the one I would be backing to win.
Verdict: Jeu D’Opale to beat Star Of Affinity, with Batwomen the one for the places.