The 3.10 at Taunton looks the sort of race where it pays to side with potential rather than just recent wins, and Kentucky River is the one who stands out.
On recent hurdle form, Postponed Legacy is the obvious starting point. He has won three of his last four, arrives in top nick and deserves plenty of respect. The problem is that he is no longer hiding from the handicapper. Another 9 lb rise makes life tougher, and this looks a deeper race than the one he won last time.
That opens the door for something less exposed, and Kentucky River fits the bill. His three runs over hurdles have been ordinary enough, but they came before he was sent into handicaps and on ground that may not have suited. Today’s better surface should help, and his Flat background suggests there is more to come now he is dropped into this grade off a mark of 94.
Timeform are keen on him for good reason. This stiffer pace should suit a horse who has shown stamina and class on the Flat, and this is the first time he has really looked set up to show his hand over hurdles. In races like this, the one with a bit in hand is often the right answer, and he looks the likeliest to improve past his mark.
Knight Templar is respected. He has been running well on the Flat and is on a workable hurdles mark, so he looks a solid contender. Midnight View is another who could get involved if he keeps progressing, but he may find one or two better treated. Tilehurst has some interest on handicap debut after a break, though he still has a bit to prove.
As for Siam Park, the HRB rating catches the eye and his chase form is strong, but he remains opposable back over hurdles given his record in this discipline. Moutarde and Public Enemy both need a revival, while St Lukes Chelsea looks more place than win material.
This may come down to whether proven form or untapped potential wins out. Postponed Legacy sets the standard, but Kentucky River is the one who could easily leave his previous hurdle efforts behind now everything looks more in his favour.
Verdict
Kentucky River is the pick to win the 3.10 at Taunton. He has the right profile for a race like this, and handicap debut on better ground could be the trigger for a much improved run.
Selection: Kentucky River
Main danger: Postponed Legacy
Best each-way angle: Knight Templar