This is not a race full of secrets. It is a small-field handicap chase over nearly three miles, and the market has already done a fair job of pointing us towards the right horses. The question is not whether there are chances all round, because there are, but which runner is most likely to turn up, run to his mark and handle the likely shape of the race best.
For me, that horse is Kelce.
Neil Mulholland’s gelding does not arrive here with the glamour profile of an unexposed improver, but he brings something just as important in races like this: solid, repeatable form. He was back on the scoresheet at Musselburgh last time, winning a 3m handicap chase in the manner of a horse who knows his job. He travelled well, saw it out properly and, crucially, looked straightforward.
That matters at Taunton. This is a track where rhythm counts, and in a six-runner race that may not be run at a searching gallop, position and fluency can decide things. Timeform’s pace angle points towards a weaker tempo, and that looks another tick in Kelce’s box. He is the sort who can hold his place, jump, and apply pressure at the right time.
The handicapper has had his say with a 7 lb rise, and that is the obvious question. He now has to produce a career-best. But this is not a race overloaded with lurking dangers. In fact, most of his rivals come with a “but”.
Kap Vert is the danger. He won over course and distance in December and has taken well enough to fences. There is every chance he has not reached his ceiling yet as a chaser, and he has the profile of one who could still step forward. He is respected, no doubt about that. The concern is whether he is quite as battle-hardened as Kelce if this becomes a tactical scrap from the home turn.
Royal Jewel is another with obvious claims after winning here last month. He likes the track, arrives in form and has done little wrong in two starts either side of Christmas. He is no back number. Even so, he is now up another 3 lb and has less room for manoeuvre than he did before. He looks sure to be competitive, but he may be vulnerable to one better treated on the day.
U Cant Be Serious is harder to trust. At his best this season he has looked a useful handicap chaser, particularly at Exeter, but his last two runs have been poor and first-time cheekpieces now go on. That could help, but it also tells its own story. He needs a revival, not just a small step back in the right direction.
Hold Your Fort looks up against it. He is honest enough in his own grade and has won races, but this asks a fair bit after a break and against rivals who bring stronger current form. He needs a few things to fall right.
Wicked Thoughts would have had some appeal on old form, especially given the Nicholls and Cobden record at Taunton, but with him now a non-runner he drops out of the equation.
So where does that leave us? In truth, with a fairly straightforward conclusion. Kelce is not the flashy pick and he is not thrown in. But he is in form, stays, should be suited by the likely pace, and has the profile of a horse who is more likely than most to give you a proper run for your money.
In races like this, that is often enough.
Verdict
Kelce is the one to beat.
Kap Vert looks the main threat, with Royal Jewel next on the list.
Predicted 1-2-3
Kelce
Kap Vert
Royal Jewel