This is only a five-runner Class 5 for three-year-olds, but it is not a bad little race. The field is tight on ratings, there is not much between them on bare form, and the pace angle could end up deciding it.
Timeform are expecting a very weak pace, and that matters. In small-field races around Wolverhampton, it is often less about who stays best and more about who gets the run of it. If they dawdle early, the horse sitting handy has a big edge.
That brings Aneirin’s Sword right to the front of the argument.
Jamie Osborne’s gelding comes here in the best recent form in the race. He has been knocking on the door for a while and got his reward when winning over course and distance of sorts here 11 days ago. It was not a flashy performance, but it was solid, and he did what he had to do. A 2lb rise looks fair enough, and there is no reason to think he will not give his running again.
The bigger point is tactical. He looks the most likely pace angle in a race lacking obvious go-forward types. If Saffie Osborne can get him into a good rhythm near the front, he could control matters. In a steadily-run race, that is a major asset.
The obvious danger is Berkshire Schmokin. Andrew Balding’s runner won over course and distance 15 days ago and did it well enough. His HRB figure is the best in the field, and there is every chance he still has a bit more to offer on the all-weather. The concern is that his latest win came off a stronger gallop, and this race may not set up the same way. He still looks the main threat, but he may need things to fall right.
Extraterrestrial is the interesting one. Timeform make him their idea of the winner, and it is easy to see why. He took a clear step forward when third at Kempton and now goes handicapping for a yard that knows the time of day with this sort. He is open to more progress than most of these. The problem is that he is short enough for a horse still learning and stepping into a tactical race that may not be run to suit.
My Champion also has claims. He won here in January, cheekpieces go on, and he is not exposed over this trip. He is one for the shortlist, but from the outside stall in a five-runner race he may have to work harder than ideal for position.
Zipwire has been consistent and has track form, but he looks the most exposed of the lot and may just find one or two stronger when it matters.
This is not a race to overcomplicate. In a contest where there is little between the principals, the pace setup can be the deciding factor. Aneirin’s Sword arrives in form, handles the track, stays the trip, and looks the one most likely to get first run.
Verdict
Aneirin’s Sword is the pick to follow up.
Berkshire Schmokin rates the main danger, while Extraterrestrial is the one with the potential to improve past them.
Predicted 1-2-3
Aneirin’s Sword
Berkshire Schmokin
Extraterrestrial
I can turn that into a sharper tipster-style post or a fuller blog with a stronger betting angle.