This 5f handicap at Wolverhampton does not look complicated. There is enough pace in the race, a few arrive in fair nick, and the one with the strongest overall case is Moulin Booj.
The George Scott-trained six-year-old is a previous course-and-distance winner, is well drawn in stall 2, and shaped better than the bare result when fourth at Chelmsford 16 days ago. That was his first run back and it came in a stronger race than this. He now drops in grade and gets conditions that should suit him much better.
Timeform’s view makes plenty of sense. They expect a strong pace and reckon that should play into the hands of Moulin Booj and Thecoffeepoddotco. That is a fair reading of the race. Almaty Star and Sam’s Xpress both like to be involved, and if they take each other on early, something sitting just off them should get the perfect tow into it.
That is the main reason to side with Moulin Booj. He does not need to force it, he has the tactical speed for this track, and he should be finishing when some of the others have cried enough.
Thecoffeepoddotco is the obvious danger. She has been in good form, has won twice recently at Lingfield and is well housed in stall 1. Her run behind Alondra over this course and distance reads well enough, and this stronger pace could suit her better than what she faced at Chelmsford last time. She looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces if the favourite underperforms.
Almaty Star is reliable, but there is a reason to oppose him for win purposes. He has stall 7 to deal with and may have to work too hard early to get across. In a race where there looks genuine speed, that is not ideal. He should run his race, but he may again find one or two stronger late on.
Alondra deserves respect after two wins and a second in her last three starts, all over course and distance, but this is a deeper race and she is no longer particularly well treated. She can run well without necessarily being the answer.
Sam’s Xpress has done plenty right in recent months and will likely be part of the pace again, but this is a stronger grade than the races he has been contesting. He is solid, though perhaps vulnerable late.
American Bay has ability and the Billy Loughnane booking catches the eye, but he returns from 167 days off and is not straightforward enough to trust blindly after that absence. Middleton View needs to leave his last two runs behind in a hurry.
There is no need to overthink it. The pace looks set to collapse into the lap of a horse that can travel and finish, and Moulin Booj ticks the right boxes. He is proven at the track, comes here off a decent run in better company, and should get the race run to suit.
Verdict: Moulin Booj is the most likely winner.
Main danger: Thecoffeepoddotco.
Best of the rest: Almaty Star.