The 1.20 at Cheltenham looks deep on paper, but the race does not need dressing up. No Drama This End is the one they all have to beat.
He has the right profile for this contest. He is already a Cheltenham winner, he has won over the trip, and his success in the Challow Hurdle reads like proper Grade 1 novice form. On the HRB ratings he sits at the head of the pack, and Timeform also puts him on top. When the ratings, the form and the race setup all point to the same horse, that is usually the place to start.
There is another layer to the case as well. The BigRaceTrend Hunter has him matching 14 historical trends with an Overall Fit of 9.14, which is one of the strongest profiles in the field. That matters because this race tends to go to a horse with an established top-level novice profile rather than an unproven improver. Recent winners such as The New Lion, Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe and Sir Gerhard all came here looking like the class act. No Drama This End fits that pattern.
That said, this is not a one-horse race.
The trends flag up I’ll Sort That in a big way. He tops that particular view with a striking 26 trends matched and an Overall Fit of 19.03. That is miles clear of the rest and impossible to ignore. He is not just a quirky trends throw-up either. He has won a Grade 1 at Naas, stays the trip and keeps progressing. The doubt is whether his actual form is quite as strong as the very best on offer here, but the historical profile says he is a major player.
Of the Irish challengers, King Rasko Grey makes plenty of appeal. He has strong Leopardstown Grade 1 form, Paul Townend takes over, and his trend score of 11 with an 8.17 fit backs up the visual impression that he belongs near the head of the market. He looks one of the safer alternatives to the favourite.
Ballyfad is another obvious danger. His short-head second in a Leopardstown Grade 1 reads very well, and the step up to this trip should suit. He is a strong, straightforward stayer and there is every chance he improves again for the extra distance. He does not score especially strongly on the trends compared with a couple of others, but on raw form he is firmly in the mix.
Then there is Sober, one of the more interesting runners in the line-up. He is unbeaten, classy on the Flat and clearly has an engine, but this is a very different examination from the smaller-field races he has been contesting. Talent is not the issue. The question is whether he can cope with the rough and tumble of a big-field Cheltenham novice run at a proper pace.
That pace angle is worth noting. Timeform expects a strong gallop and suggests that could suit those ridden more patiently. It is the one small concern for No Drama This End, because if he gets involved too early he could be vulnerable late on. Even so, he has already shown enough stamina and class to think he can cope.
At the bigger prices, there are a few who could outrun their odds, but most are being asked to find far too much. This race usually goes to a horse already showing top-class novice form, and that brings the focus back to the market principals.
The truth is that the case for No Drama This End remains the strongest. He has the best balance of ratings, proven form, course evidence and trend support. I’ll Sort That is the horse the trends men will want on side, while King Rasko Grey and Ballyfad look the most solid of the Irish threats.
Verdict
No Drama This End is still the pick. He has the strongest all-round profile and looks the most likely winner.
I’ll Sort That is the danger if the trends are spot on, while King Rasko Grey appeals as the next best option from the Mullins team.
Selection: No Drama This End
Main danger: I’ll Sort That
Next best: King Rasko Grey