Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase: Romeo Coolio the one to beat
The Brown Advisory is one of the races at Cheltenham that usually tells the truth. There is nowhere to hide over this trip. You need class, jumping, stamina and the ability to keep finding up the hill. This year’s renewal is deep, but the race still looks to revolve around a handful of key names, with Romeo Coolio narrowly preferred.
He has done nothing wrong over fences, winning all four starts, and that matters. Plenty arrive here with talent, but not all of them arrive with such a clean and progressive profile. His Grade 1 wins have come over shorter, yet he has never shaped like a horse short of stamina. In fact, he looks the opposite. He travels strongly, jumps well and gives the impression that a proper test will suit rather than find him out. With Timeform expecting a strong pace, that becomes even more important. This race is likely to be run hard, and that should play to the strengths of a horse who can settle and finish.
The case against him is obvious enough. He has not yet proved himself over this exact trip in public, and this is no ordinary staying novice chase. Cheltenham over 3m1f is an unforgiving examination. Even so, the manner of his runs suggests this has long looked the right race rather than an afterthought. He has class in abundance, and if he stays as well as expected, he is the one they all have to beat.
The Trend Hunter data does add an interesting wrinkle. On pure historical alignment, Final Demand comes out best. That deserves respect. This race often rewards a very particular type, and Final Demand fits a lot of those long-term markers. He is from the right stable, has top-class form and, on trends alone, makes plenty of appeal. The problem is that trends cannot erase what happened at Leopardstown. He was beaten decisively by Kaid D’Authie, and for a horse sent off such a short-priced favourite, it was a let-down. He is clearly capable of better, but he now has something to prove.
Kaid D’Authie brings the strongest recent single piece of form into the race. His Leopardstown Grade 1 win was not just tidy, it was authoritative. He beat Western Fold cleanly and had Final Demand behind him. He looks a natural chaser and still has the potential to improve again. The only reservation is stamina. He should stay, but in this company and around Cheltenham, “should” is not quite the same as “will”. He is a major player, but there is just enough doubt to stop him being the first choice.
Of the others, Koktail Divin makes plenty of each-way sense. He has been brought along steadily, his profile is progressive, and he looks the sort who will keep galloping when this turns into a slog. He may lack the headline profile of some of the Mullins runners, but he is not short of substance. Wendigo is another solid stayer who should run his race, though he may just lack the class of the very best of these. The Big Westerner is interesting on his Festival form and receives weight, but he is less experienced over fences than several of the main contenders. Kitzbuhel has a stronger trends profile than his form alone suggests, but there are still enough jumping concerns to leave him as more of an outsider than a leading fancy.
So the race comes back to the same point. Do you trust the trends horse, the proven recent Grade 1 winner over intermediate trips, or the unbeaten chaser who looks ready for this test? For me, it is the last of those. Romeo Coolio has the right blend of class, rhythm and upside, and in a race likely to be run at a searching pace, he looks the one most likely to improve again for the challenge.
Verdict: Romeo Coolio to win, with Kaid D’Authie and Final Demand the main dangers. Koktail Divin appeals most each-way.