The 2.40 at Cheltenham is the BetMGM Cup Handicap Hurdle, a proper Festival handicap and the sort of race where you need more than just a sexy profile. You need class, a workable mark, the right pace set-up and a horse that will cope with a big-field scrap up the hill.
This year’s renewal looks sure to be run at a strong clip. Timeform’s view is blunt enough: a very strong pace is expected, and that should bring the closers into it late. In a race like this, that matters. Too many get lit up early and pay for it from the last to the line.
From an HRB and Timeform angle, Storm Heart is the one that stands out most.
His HRB figure is the best on the page and he comes here on the back of two wins, including a Grade 3 at Gowran. That latest run was better than the bare form because he had to do it the hard way and still got the job done. He is only six, lightly raced for one from the Mullins yard, and looks the type still improving rather than one simply running to a level.
The return to 2m5f looks a plus. He has the pace for shorter, but this trip in a strongly-run handicap should suit him even better. He should travel, he should settle, and if he gets the gaps at the right time he has the class to go through with it.
He also fits the recent race trends well enough. The last few winners have mostly been in the six to eight age bracket and have come from the big Festival yards. Mullins won it last year with Jimmy Du Seuil and has another strong hand again. Storm Heart looks the pick of it.
That said, this is no gimme.
Iberico Lord is the obvious danger and arguably the most interesting runner if you are building the race around pace. Timeform makes the point clearly: the expected gallop should play right into his hands. He won the Lanzarote in tidy fashion and remains unexposed at this sort of trip. Nicky Henderson has a very strong record in this race and Iberico Lord looks laid out for it. If they go too hard in front, he is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
Jingko Blue is another for Henderson and has the class to be involved, but he does not make quite as much appeal as Iberico Lord in the context of how the race is likely to unfold.
The Yellow Clay is classy enough to win, but top weight in a race like this is never ideal. He has the ability, no question, but giving weight away in a rough Festival handicap is a different matter from running well in graded races. He is respected, not trusted.
Kateira has obvious claims for Dan Skelton, especially given the yard’s recent record in the race. Her mark has eased and this has likely been the plan, but she still needs to prove she can deliver in this deeper company after a couple of underwhelming efforts.
At a bigger price, Guard Duty makes some appeal. He is not flashy, but he is solid, and he keeps putting himself in the argument. In this sort of race, that counts for plenty. He looks more each-way than win material, but he would not be a surprise in the first four.
The key to the race is simple enough. You want a horse with enough class to carry a big weight, enough tactical pace to hold position, and enough stamina to come through late off what should be a searching gallop. Storm Heart ticks more of those boxes than most.
There are risks. He is not thrown in off 151 and this is a much deeper race than the one he won last time. But he still looks the runner with the strongest overall case.
Verdict
Storm Heart is the percentage call. He brings the best HRB figure, arrives in form, has the right profile for the race and still has more upside than plenty of these.
Iberico Lord is the main threat if the race collapses late.
Guard Duty is the value each-way angle.
In a race full of strong cases and familiar Festival traps, Storm Heart looks the one most likely to be good enough when it matters.