The BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase at 4.00 Cheltenham looks strong on quality but fairly straightforward at the top of the market. The horse they all have to beat is Majborough.
There is no need to overthink the obvious. He comes here off the best recent piece of form in the race, is clear top on the main ratings, and has already shown he can handle Cheltenham. His Dublin Chase win was not just visually impressive, it was ruthless. He beat Marine Nationale by 19 lengths, and that is serious form in the context of a race like this.
On the figures, he is where you would expect a Champion Chase favourite to be. He is clear top on HRB and clear top on Timeform, and when both sets of numbers point strongly in the same direction in a Grade 1, it usually pays to keep things simple. If he reproduces his Leopardstown run, the rest will need him to underperform.
That said, this is not a penalty kick. The one nagging concern with Majborough is his jumping. He has made mistakes before, and around Cheltenham over two miles there is no room for sloppiness. His latest run suggested he had sharpened up a fair bit in that department, but in a race of this pace and pressure, it remains the one angle that could make him vulnerable.
If there is a horse to exploit any weakness, it is Il Etait Temps. He appeals as the main danger on both ability and race profile. His Tingle Creek win was top-class, and the HorseRaceBase historical trend view also gives him the strongest fit for this race. That matters because the Champion Chase often goes to a battle-hardened, fully established top-level two-mile chaser, and he fits that mould better than the favourite.
The worry with him is obvious as well. He fell in the Clarence House and that is never ideal prep for a race like this. You can forgive one fall, especially with a horse of his class, but you cannot ignore it. If he is none the worse for that experience, he is the one most likely to put pressure on the market leader.
L’Eau du Sud has a solid case for the places and is not impossible if the front two fail to fire. His Shloer Chase win at Cheltenham gives him valuable course form, and he comes here fresher than most after a break since Sandown. He is a smart horse, he jumps well on the whole, and the track suits him. The issue is whether he has quite enough class to win a Champion Chase if the top pair run their race. He looks more likely to be picking up the pieces than dishing them out.
Of the rest, Quilixios is the interesting outsider. He was still going well when falling late in this race last year and has the pace for two miles, but the long absence makes him hard to trust in a championship contest. Found A Fifty had a line of form earlier in the season that made him worth considering, but his more recent efforts have taken the edge off that argument. Captain Guinness won this race in 2024 and the trends still like him more than the market does, but his current form is difficult to warm to. Saint Segal, Libberty Hunter, Irish Panther and Brookie look to have plenty to find.
The race trends themselves are worth a quick look. Recent winners have generally been seasoned Grade 1 two-mile chasers, usually aged between seven and nine. That is the one small knock on Majborough, who is still only six and does not fit the usual Champion Chase mould as neatly as Il Etait Temps does. But trends are there to test the form, not replace it. When one horse is clearly ahead on recent evidence, that still has to come first.
So the shape of the race is clear enough. Majborough is the class act, the form horse and the one with the highest ceiling. Il Etait Temps is the danger, particularly if the race turns into more of a war than a procession. L’Eau du Sud looks the safest option for third.
There is no point pretending it is